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Mr. Kenji Moriyama
This paper investigates inflation dynamics in Sudan using three different approaches: the single equation model, the structural vector-auto regression model and a vector error correction model. This is the first study in a low-income and a post-conflict country that uses these three separate techniques to understand inflation dynamics. The use of these approaches is particularly useful to check the robustness of the estimated parameters in the model for a country with limited data coverage and possible structural breaks. The estimated results suggest that money supply growth and nominal exchange rate changes affect inflation with 18-24 months time lag.
Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the dynamic link between interest rates and the demand for cash. We also apply ARIMA modeling to forecast the daily currency in circulation for Brazil, Kazakhstan, Morocco, New Zealand, and Sudan. Our empirical work shows that some of the conclusions in the economic literature on the impact of interest rates on the demand for currency do not necessarily hold, and that central banks would benefit from running both generations of currency in circulation models. The fundamental longer-run determinants of the demand for cash are distinct from its short-run determinants.