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Jacques R. Artus

This paper reviews the increasing private capital flows to less developed countries. The share of developing countries in the foreign direct investment is small, perhaps less than 30 percent of the total. The effects of this decline in the volume of foreign investment and the continued problem of capital flight have been aggravated by the serious fall in commercial bank lending to developing countries as a group and by a decline in official development assistance.

Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries, and in particular decreasing unit labor costs have had a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production. While we find it unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States, we find that U.S. manufacturing exports could provide nonnegligible growth opportunities going forward.
Mr. Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, and Mr. Andrea Pescatori
Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.

The potential output of a sector or a whole economy is a concept that is difficult to define and even more difficult to measure. Nevertheless, the need for such a measure, however imprecise, is not in doubt. The concepts of potential output and the ratio of actual to potential output, hereinafter referred to as the output gap, are in constant use in arguments about the economic situation and the appropriateness of public policies. The output gap has also been found to play a major role as a determinant of investment, price changes, foreign trade flows, etc.1 However, it is important to recognize that estimates of potential output are often misunderstood and misused, and for this reason have sometimes contributed to faulty policy decisions.

Mr. Roberto Cardarelli and Ms. Lusine Lusinyan


The recent boom in unconventional energy production is transforming the energy landscape in North America, with important implications for global energy markets and the broader competitiveness outlook. This book, within a unifying policy perspective, examines the impact the upsurge in energy production has had on the manufacturing sectors of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and of the region as a whole, which produces nearly a quarter of the world’s energy.