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  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
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Dimitre Milkov, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, and Mr. John Wakeman-Linn
Le secteur financier de la Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC) a été durement touché par la crise financière mondiale et par la récession mondiale qui s'en est suivie. Cette note examine la réaction des autorités des pays de la CEMAC à la crise et à la récession, et s'intéresse particulièrement aux incidences des politiques actuelles sur la viabilité des finances publiques de chaque pays, ainsi qu'à la viabilité de la position extérieure de la région et de son taux de couverture des réserves. Elle présente ensuite des recommandations de politique générale aux autorités des pays de la CEMAC, alors où celles-ci ajustent leur réaction à la crise mondiale.
Dimitre Milkov, Mr. Rafael A Portillo, Mr. Plamen K Iossifov, and Mr. John Wakeman-Linn
The financial sector of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) has been seriously affected by the global financial crisis and resulting global recession. This note assesses the response of CEMAC governments to the global financial crisis and recession, with particular focus on the impact of current policies on each country’s fiscal sustainability as well as the region’s external sustainability and reserve coverage. The note then provides general policy advice to CEMAC governments as they refine their response to the global crisis.
Ms. Caroline M Kende-Robb
The objective of this paper is to present some early experiences of poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) from the PRGF-supported programs in the African Department. The paper illustrates that many staff country reports have taken a first step toward PSIA by making more explicit the links between poverty and policies. Various examples highlight that even though relationships can be complex and analysis, as a result, may not be definitive, it is possible to assess some of the potential poverty effects even in countries with limited data, and therefore contribute to a more informed policy debate and design. The paper concludes that PSIA can help design policies that are more pro-poor, better define appropriate compensatory and complementary measures where appropriate, and support country ownership of reforms by promoting a public debate on trade-offs between policy choices. In light of this, the paper proposes that PRGF policy advice would benefit from more systematic PSIA and that staff country reports could report more on the potential policy trade-offs and poverty outcomes based on PSIA.
Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad and Mr. Luc E. Leruth
In the context of continuing adjustments in the economy, the Government of Indonesia proposes to bring energy prices closer to long run marginal cost, while adequately compensating the poor. We focus on the constraints on central government policy objectives towards the poor as decentralization takes effect. However, local governments currently lack credible social protection instruments and their objectives usually do not match those of the center, which imposes constraints on program designs. We discuss the suitability of a number of safety net mechanisms in a decentralized context and draw policy implications.
Hilde C. Bjørnland
This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. CPI inflation, however, misrepresents core inflation in some periods. The differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model, in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when Norway imported inflation, and the negative noncore (supply) shocks of the late 1980s, which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation.
Mr. David Coady, Mr. Taimur Baig, Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro, and Mr. Amine Mati
The paper reviews recent developments in the pass-through of international to domestic petroleum product prices, in the different fuel pricing regimes, and in fuel subsidies in a range of emerging market and developing economies. The main finding of the paper is the limited price pass-through in many countries and the consequent increase in fuel subsidies. The paper proposes that key elements of a successful strategy to contain subsidies should comprise: making subsidies explicit; making pricing mechanisms more robust; combining reductions in subsidies with measures to protect the poorest; using the resulting savings well, and transparency and consultation.
Mr. Andrea Gamba
Jordan’s initiatives to reduce its energy dependency could have substantial macroeconomic implications, but will crucially depend on the level of international oil prices in the next decade. Significant uncertainties remain regarding the feasibility of the initiatives and their potential fiscal costs, including from contingent liabilities, could be very large. Given the lead time required for such major investments, work should start now on: (i) conducting comprehensive cost-benefits analysis of these projects; (ii) addressing the challenges arising from the taxation of natural resources; and (iii) designing a fiscal framework to anchor fiscal policies if revenue from these energy projects materializes.