The authors of this special feature are Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto, Andrea Pescatori (team leader), and Julia Xueliang Wang, with research assistance from Lama Kiyasseh and Claire Mengyi Li.
The authors of this chapter are Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli (co-lead), Weicheng Lian, and Damiano Sandri (co-lead), with support from Jungjin Lee and Xiaohui Sun. The chapter benefited from insightful comments by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and internal seminar participants.
The authors of this chapter are Philip Barrett, Christian Bogmans, Benjamin Carton, Johannes Eugster, Florence Jaumotte (lead), Adil Mohommad, Evgenia Pugacheva, Marina M. Tavares, and Simon Voigts, in collaboration with external consultants Warwick McKibbin and Weifeng Liu for modeling simulations, and with contributions from Thomas Brand. Srijoni Banerjee, Eric Bang, and Jaden Kim provided research support, and Daniela Rojas Fernandez provided editorial assistance.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.