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Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Mr. Xuefei Bai, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

Abstract

Average growth in the small states in the Asia and Pacific region remained weak (1 percent) in 2013 and underperformed that in other small states—2 percent. However, activity within the Asia-Pacific small states was uneven, with commodity exporters growing at the rate of 3 percent which, while robust, was lower than past rates (Figure 1). Economic performance in the microstates (i.e., countries with a population below 200,000—Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, and Tuvalu) lagged behind with growth estimated at less than 1 percent. Inflation has remained broadly in check. These countries remain highly vulnerable to natural disasters as shown by the recent cyclones in Tonga and Vanuatu, and severe floods in Solomon Islands.

Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Mr. Xuefei Bai, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

Abstract

Fishing license fees are a major source of revenue in several Pacific island countries (Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Tuvalu). In 2013 the fee earnings ranged from 15 percent of total revenues in the Marshall Islands to 65 percent in Kiribati. Despite the large fishery-derived wealth, PICs still have enormous untapped marine resources and further efforts are under way to properly leverage and manage them. First, the ratio of the income PICs receive by selling fishing rights to foreign companies to the value of the fish catch is very low. Second, an improperly designed access right scheme could lead to the overexploitation of marine resources. This would mean a decline in the fish supply (mainly tuna) and, eventually, a depletion of fish stocks, which would undermine fiscal sustainability. Finally, the intrinsic volatility of revenue from fishing license fees poses a challenge for fiscal policy.2

Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Mr. Xuefei Bai, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

Abstract

The work on the small states is an important component of the IMF’s global policy agenda. Among the 36 member countries covered by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department (APD), 13 countries are developing small states—most of which are Pacific islands. As part of APD’s ongoing effort to increase its engagement with regional small states and their development partners and enhance information sharing within the IMF, this issue marks the launch of the APD Small States Monitor, a quarterly bulletin featuring the latest economic developments, country notes from the most recent Article IV staff reports, special topics, past and upcoming events, and forthcoming IMF research on small states. In future issues, we will also host contributions from the authorities of small states and their development partners on key policy topics. Our goal is to exchange knowledge and deepen our understanding of the policy challenges these economies face to better tailor our policy advice.

Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Mr. Xuefei Bai, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

Abstract

How involved is the IMF in the Pacific?

Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Mr. Xuefei Bai, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

Abstract

Context: The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is going through a period of output fluctuations. The economy expanded in FY2012 by 3.2 percent, supported by export growth, but in FY2013 is estimated to have slowed to 0.8 percent due to the postponement of infrastructure projects. A fiscal deficit of 0.8 percent of GDP was recorded in FY2012 and another deficit of similar magnitude is estimated for FY2013.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The economic recovery is under way, with upward revisions to global growth as financial markets normalized faster than expected and policy stimulus took effect. The upswing in advanced economies is still muted and dependent on policy support. In contrast, many emerging markets are experiencing a more vigorous upswing amid easy financing conditions and rising commodity prices.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The Latin America and Caribbean region is recovering from the crisis somewhat faster than previously anticipated. However, the speed of recovery and the associated policy challenges differ markedly across countries. For some of the larger commodity exporters, a favorable external environment and a strong rebound in domestic demand are boosting growth. Challenges ahead include managing the upswing of the economic cycle and adjusting to easy external financial conditions. In contrast, for some of the smaller commodity importers, challenges will likely be shaped by continued sluggish activity, particularly in countries more reliant on tourism and constrained by high debt levels.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Although easy external financial conditions are overall good news for emerging markets, they come with risks that need to be managed. Past episodes of easy conditions often have led to sustained accelerations of domestic demand and significant real appreciation in emerging market countries, sometimes also accompanied by fast credit growth. Importantly, responses to easy conditions have varied in degree, reflecting differences in policies as well as structural features. With interest rates of major advanced economies and global risk aversion both likely to remain low for a sustained period, the challenge for policymakers is to conduct macroeconomic and prudential policies that make the most out of the enhanced financing possibilities while reducing the likelihood of boom-bust cycles. Policies on many fronts will be relevant, with exchange rate flexibility, fiscal policy, and macroeconomic prudential regulation being among the most important in insulating against unwanted demand and credit booms.