This Article IV Consultation reports that the main challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability in substantial demand shock from the construction of two major liquefied natural gas projects. The global downturn had only a mild impact, as growth was supported by still strong terms of trade, a financial sector insulated from global capital markets, and an increase in public expenditure. IMF staff stressed that monetary policy needed to be focused on emerging inflation pressures and act preemptively to avoid high inflation from becoming entrenched in expectations.
This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of past growth performance and an assessment of the outlook for growth in Timor-Leste. It identifies impediments to growth and discusses policies that would contribute to the accelerated rates of growth needed to reduce poverty and unemployment and the other objectives of the National Development Plan. The paper reviews the macroeconomic challenges commonly faced by oil/gas exporters. It discusses Timor-Leste’s oil/gas revenue outlook, and plans for managing the oil/gas wealth through a natural resource (petroleum) fund and a saving policy.
This paper provides deeper insights on a few themes with regard to the experience with macroeconomic management in resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). First, some stylized facts on the performance of these economies relative to their non-resource peers are provided. Second, the experience of Fund engagement in these economies with respect to surveillance, programs, and technical assistance is assessed. Third, the experience of selected countries with good practices in the management of the natural resource wealth is presented. Fourth, the experience of IMF advice in helping RRDCs set up resource funds is discussed. Finally, the main themes and messages from the IMF staff consultation with external stakeholders (CSOs, policy makers, academics) are presented.