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Mr. Marcello Caiola

Abstract

Before preparing a financial program or analyzing developments in a country, sufficient data on the economy’s past and expected performance are necessary. If the basis for the program or analysis is deficient, the program will probably not be well prepared and the objectives will not be achieved. All those data that may have an impact on the preparation of a program are needed. IMF missions are sometimes described as “hungry” for both statistics and data in general, but this hunger is logical, because before giving any advice or taking any decision, the mission must know what is happening in a country. The term “data” is used broadly here, meaning not only statistical information, but also details of pertinent legislation and of rules and regulations connected with the implementation of such legislation.

Mr. Marcello Caiola

Abstract

The desk economist can be defined as the IMF’s expert, in the broadest possible meaning of the term, on a certain country. This means that he should be fully knowledgeable about the economic and financial developments, as well as the political and social situation of his assigned country.1 Indeed, if the desk economist wishes to contribute to the shaping of the IMF’s policies on his country and have his views taken into account, he should know that country in every detail.

Mr. Marcello Caiola

Abstract

In using a country’s economic and financial data, whether to analyze economic developments in the country or to prepare a stabilization program, one must be aware of the quality and especially the deficiencies of the statistics at one’s disposal.

International Monetary Fund

This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that Paraguay’s economic performance in recent years has been characterized by slow economic growth and increasing unemployment and poverty rates. This stagnation reflects structural impediments to growth, exacerbated by external and domestic shocks. In 2002, the economy fell into its worst recession in decades, with real GDP down by 2½ percent, according to official estimates, or 4½ percent, according to IMF staff estimates, while inflation accelerated to 14½ percent. The public finances also deteriorated sharply in 2002.

International Monetary Fund

Raising growth on a sustainable basis and addressing widespread poverty are the main challenges for Paraguay. The macroeconomic program for 2007 aims at raising growth and reducing inflation. IMF staff recommends that the next Article IV Consultation continues within the 24-month cycle, and supports completion of the second and third Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) reviews. After the 2002 financial crisis, growth has rebounded to almost twice its long-term average, per capita income surged to its highest level in 8 years, and extreme poverty has been reduced by almost one third.

International Monetary Fund

Adverse terms-of-trade developments and an unfavorable external environment have contributed to Paraguay's lackluster economic performance. Executive Directors observed the fiscal slippages, weaknesses in national accounts calculations, the statistical coverage of public enterprise operations and external tariffs, and stressed the need to tighten monetary and fiscal stances, and accelerate structural reforms. They welcomed the new strategy under the staff-monitored program, the improvement in the balance of payments, money, the central government's finances, and the country's progress toward meeting the General Data Dissemination Standard.

International Monetary Fund

Raising growth on a sustainable basis and addressing widespread poverty are the main challenges for Paraguay. The macroeconomic program for 2007 aims at raising growth and reducing inflation. IMF staff recommends that the next Article IV Consultation continues within the 24-month cycle, and supports completion of the second and third Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) reviews. After the 2002 financial crisis, growth has rebounded to almost twice its long-term average, per capita income surged to its highest level in 8 years, and extreme poverty has been reduced by almost one third.

International Monetary Fund

This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Paraguay. The program remains broadly on track. All performance criteria for end-March 2008 were met, and those for end-June 2008 are expected to have been observed. With one exception, all structural benchmarks for 2008 are expected to be implemented, albeit with delays. The economy grew 6¾ percent in 2007 and is expected to continue expanding at least 5 percent in 2008 driven by strong agricultural exports.

International Monetary Fund

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Paraguayan economy performed very well over the past five years, with real GDP growth averaging about 5 percent a year—the best in a generation. The fiscal position strengthened considerably, thereby reducing public debt sharply to relatively low levels. The economy grew by nearly 6 percent in 2008, but growth decelerated in the last quarter of the year. Paraguay’s macroeconomic outlook has also been negatively affected by the deterioration in the global environment.

International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth and Final Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Paraguay. The program remains broadly on track. All performance criteria for end-March 2008 were met, and those for end-June 2008 are expected to have been observed. With one exception, all structural benchmarks for 2008 are expected to be implemented, albeit with delays. The economy grew 6¾ percent in 2007 and is expected to continue expanding at least 5 percent in 2008 driven by strong agricultural exports.