This Selected Issues paper estimates a small open economy model that makes it possible to quantify the relative strength of the trade and financial channels in Hungary, Poland. and Romania. The Bayesian results indicate that both the trade and financial channels are strongest for Romania, possibly owing to the expansion of financial balance sheets and lower integration into global supply chains. For all countries, tighter domestic monetary conditions result in reduction of output and currency appreciation, although the magnitude of appreciation is less in Romania compared with peers. The trade channel is also dominant in the transmission of foreign monetary policy shocks, which result in output losses and currency depreciation.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note on Insurance Sector Regulation and Supervision provides an update and an assessment of the development of regulation and supervision of the Polish insurance sector since an assessment concluded in 2012. The note focuses on key issues, with reference to international standards but without presenting a detailed assessment of Poland’s observance. The supervision of intermediaries has also been strengthened in line with a 2012 Financial Sector Assessment Program recommendation. The Solvency II changes appear well-embedded, without significant exemptions or transitional arrangements. With limited long-term guarantee business, life insurers have currently no need for the special measures adopted for such business in many EU countries. However, the recent emergence of the first Polish financial conglomerate, which is headed by an insurer, poses supervisory challenges. In respect to the selected other areas of the insurance framework that were reviewed, the findings highlighted strengths in the approach, with some scope for further development.
The profound structural reform underway in Eastern Europe has revealed the weakness of the banking sector there; macroeconomic stability and other reforms are thereby threatened. After an overview of recent developments in the banking sectors of these countries, a model is developed that clarifies the role of banking in an emerging market economy, and the danger that the disturbances inherent to it may be magnified and prolonged by a banking collapse. The implication is that priority must be given to mobilizing fiscal resources to cover the costs of restructuring the banking sector.
This paper computes the default probabilities implicit in the prices of Brady bonds of seven developing countries and examines the factors that determine the high cross-correlation of the probability paths. The term structure of U.S. interest rates and the ratio of long-term foreign debt to GDP, together with a developing market index, explain more than 75 percent of the cross-sectional distribution of the default probabilities. The paper also demonstrates a new way to extract sovereign riskiness, implicit in traded bond prices. This allows the above results to be interpreted as explaining the cross-sectional distribution of sovereign riskiness as well.
This paper responds to Directors’ request at the time of the February discussions of the Review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL), the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for further analysis focusing on three key issues:
- The alignment of the FCL and PLL qualification criteria. The paper proposes a qualification framework for PLL arrangements based on the nine FCL criteria aiming to improve the transparency and predictability of PLL decisions, while maintaining the current qualification standards. The paper also proposes a refinement of the bank solvency criterion.
- The operationalization of an external stress index. The paper proposes a methodology to calculate a new index to strengthen discussions of a country’s external risks. Such an index would be presented to the Board at the time of requests for, or reviews under, FCL and PLL arrangements.
- The use of indicators of institutional strength. The paper argues that a limited set of new institutional indicators could be used to help broaden the indicators of institutional strength already identified in the FCL and PLL Operational Guidance Notes
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.