Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron, Ms. Filiz D Unsal, and Ms. Runchana Pongsaparn
We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI, financial conditions in Asia tightened substantially earlier in the global crisis, reflecting losses in the stock markets and tighter credit conditions. In early 2010, financial conditions in Asia recovered rapidly and reached precrisis levels, thanks to accommodative monetary policies and a rapid rebound in regional equity markets.
This study discusses the Philippine output gap from three perspectives and evaluates the utility of the approaches for policymaking. Incentives in the Philippines appear broadly comparable with those in neighboring countries. The reform would also improve short- and especially medium-term revenue collection. The general tax provisions and investment incentives in seven east-Asian economies are compared. The analysis focuses on stocks of foreign assets and liabilities and adopts a cross-country perspective to help determine the Philippines’ position within a broader universe of emerging market economies.