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International Monetary Fund
The rapid growth of the financial system presents a number of challenges to maintaining financial stability in Nepal. There has been a rapid growth of the banking sector over the last few years. State-owned institutions continue to dominate the banking system. Equity market capitalization has increased sharply while government debt markets remain underdeveloped. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the financial performance of the banking system has improved. The rapid increase in credit growth in recent years suggests growing credit risk.
International Monetary Fund
Over the past several years, Nepal has pursued a prudent fiscal policy, which has resulted in a significant reduction of public debt as a percentage of GDP. This paper reexamines the fiscal stance in Nepal in light of recent developments. The optimal level of the fiscal deficit is constrained by the need to achieve and sustain a debt-to-GDP ratio with an acceptable level of vulnerability to distress. The debt sustainability analyses (DSA) framework focuses on the net present value (NPV) of external public and publicly guaranteed debt, though public debt is also analyzed.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

This paper examines the impact of the World Bank on the financial markets and developing countries. The sound financial structure of the Bank rests on its conservative loan-to-capital ratio. Its large liquidity is an assurance to investors in Bank bonds that their investments are assured of liquidity in case the need arises. To cope with their payments difficulties, the heavily indebted developing countries have adopted more cautious fiscal and monetary policies, limited wage increases, and reduced domestic consumption and investment.

International Monetary Fund

This Background Paper on Nepal highlights that during 1993/94, overall economic performance was generally favorable. Real GDP grew by nearly 7 percent, largely owing to the good monsoon that helped boost agricultural output significantly above the low levels recorded in the previous year. Inflation remained stable at about 9 percent, closely following price developments in India. Reflecting the substantial improvement in government revenue collections, net domestic financing of the budget deficit was contained at 1 percent of GDP.

International Monetary Fund

Over the past several years, Nepal has pursued a prudent fiscal policy, which has resulted in a significant reduction of public debt as a percentage of GDP. This paper reexamines the fiscal stance in Nepal in light of recent developments. The optimal level of the fiscal deficit is constrained by the need to achieve and sustain a debt-to-GDP ratio with an acceptable level of vulnerability to distress. The debt sustainability analyses (DSA) framework focuses on the net present value (NPV) of external public and publicly guaranteed debt, though public debt is also analyzed.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix reviews agricultural productivity in Nepal and examines its links at the regional and aggregate levels to the amounts of available inputs such as chemical fertilizers, irrigation water, and improved seeds, as well as rainfall, rural credit, and foreign aid. The paper highlights factors that are statistically correlated with agricultural productivity and, as importantly, those that are not. The paper examines causes for the recent export slowdown. The bottom-heavy civil service structure is also described.

International Monetary Fund

Nepal is a post-conflict state seeking to formalize democracy in a challenging environment. Significant headway toward a new state has been made since the 2006 peace accord. Progress on a range of technical issues (including public financial management, monetary policy, and financial sector supervision) has also been achieved. However, the failure of the constituent assembly to meet an end-May 2012 deadline to ratify a new constitution is a serious setback, and a major impediment to macroeconomic management and prospects for growth. The subsequent dismissal of the constituent assembly in June 2012 has left day-to-day operations in the hands of a caretaker government. New elections are notionally slated for April 2013, but will require fractured political parties to agree on an interim consensus government. In the meantime, key articles of legislation (such as the government budget) have been delayed. More broadly, the lack of a consensus government and functioning parliament appear to be dampening investment (foreign and domestic), keeping potential donor support at bay, and undermining prospects for sensitive financial sector and state enterprise reforms.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

KEY ISSUESContext: Successful elections for a new Constituent Assembly and formation of a new government have stabilized the political situation.Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Nepal’s macroeconomic situation remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to recover in 2013/14 owing to good monsoons, robust growth in services, and increased public spending. Inflation is moderating, in line with developments in India. High remittance inflows are supporting a strong external position, as well as high reserve money growth. Risks to the outlook are slightly tilted to the downside, involving slower-than-expected growth in countries hosting Nepali workers and domestic financial sector risks.Medium term prospects: While remittances are expected to continue to support the external position, the outlook for growth depends on improving the environment for private investment. This requires a decisive boost in public capital spending, and structural reforms in key areas.Financial sector: Despite progress, significant vulnerabilities remain. The recent assessment under the FSAP, Nepal’s first, raised concerns about asset quality and interconnectedness, as well as financial sector infrastructure—including the legal framework—and supervision and crisis preparedness. At the same time, a largely unsupervised cooperatives sector is growing rapidly.Key policy recommendations: Monetary policy should aim at controlling the volatility and level of excess reserves in the financial system, implying a modest tightening of monetary conditions. The exchange rate peg to the Indian rupee provides a useful nominal anchor for the economy, and the real exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals. Capital spending needs to be boosted to provide key infrastructure, and reforms implemented to support private investment, which will help generate sustained economic growth and employment opportunities. In the financial sector, further reforms to bolster regulation and supervision, and improve financial infrastructure are needed to reduce risk and increase access to finance.