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International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This technical assistance report on Mongolia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed in June, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Mongolia or the Executive Board of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This IMF Staff Report discusses Mongolia’s Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility. Mongolia’s performance under the program thus far has been strong. The economy is recovering better than expected, with real GDP growth of 5.1 percent in 2017. The combination of strong policy implementation and a supportive external environment has helped the authorities over-perform on all end-December 2017 quantitative targets. However, the performance on structural reforms has been mixed with some delays on structural benchmarks under the program and reversals of three fiscal measures considered during previous reviews. Given the strong performance to date, continued improvement in the macro outlook, and still high public debt, the authorities committed to tightening the fiscal and reserve targets.
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.
International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix presents an overview of the fiscal developments in Mongolia since the late 1990s. It assesses the “quality” of the ongoing fiscal adjustment. The paper examines the dramatic expansion of bank credit to the private sector over the last five years, asking what its sources are and what its consequences may be, particularly for the maintenance of macroeconomic and financial stability. The paper also describes recent developments in the garment sector in Mongolia.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Staff Report for the First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia