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Ms. Pritha Mitra, Amr Hosny, Gohar Minasyan, Mr. Mark Fischer, and Gohar Abajyan
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Naiem A. Sherbiny

This paper reviews the increasing private capital flows to less developed countries. The share of developing countries in the foreign direct investment is small, perhaps less than 30 percent of the total. The effects of this decline in the volume of foreign investment and the continued problem of capital flight have been aggravated by the serious fall in commercial bank lending to developing countries as a group and by a decline in official development assistance.

International Monetary Fund
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Libya has made efforts to liberalize its economy and foreign trade, achieving increasing economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. In 2006, economic conditions continued to be satisfactory. Real GDP grew about 5½ percent, reflecting an increase of 4½ percent in the value added of the hydrocarbon sector. In 2006, structural reform continued with the implementation of a wide range of measures covering fiscal management and taxation, banking and payments systems, trade, and the business environment.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper attempts to uncover the long-term determinants of the demand for foreign exchange reserves in Tunisia. It assesses the adequacy of current and projected reserves holdings in light of the country’s policy choices. The paper describes recent trends in foreign exchange reserves in Tunisia. Econometric evidence on the determinants of the demand for foreign reserves in Tunisia is presented. The results are used to forecast the desired level of reserves given Tunisia’s medium-term macroeconomic framework and to draw policy implications.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on the relation of inflation to economic development. Due to the inadequacy of savings and the difficulty of directing them into productive investment, there is a strong temptation to raise the level of investment by expanding bank credit—that is, by inflation. In most low-income countries, even the most forceful measures for increasing savings and for applying them to the most urgent needs would still leave the economy with inadequate resources for the investment necessary to assure tolerable progress in raising productive efficiency and expanding production. The only way of securing adequate resources for development in such countries is by supplementing domestic savings with capital from abroad. It is characteristic of the underdeveloped countries that the resources they put into investment are generally a smaller proportion of their very much smaller national product than is true for the more highly developed countries. The proportionally low level of investment in underdeveloped countries may be due to various factors. Frequently, though not universally, the cause of inadequate investment is the unavailability of savings.
Dong Frank Wu and Mr. Friedrich Schneider
This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.
Rudolf Hablützel

Apart from the major financial issues raised by the emergence of large surpluses in the oil-rich countries of the Middle East, important issues in economic development have arisen for them. This article identifies the significant factors that have emerged in the economies of six of these countries since 1973 in their efforts to achieve economic development through diversification of their domestic economies.

International Monetary Fund
The Fund, represented by the Managing Director, has reached understandings with Libya acting through the Central Bank of Libya (“Libya”), to finance capacity building (technical assistance and training) and related activities. On the basis of these understandings, the Managing Director has established the essential terms and conditions of the Subaccount, with which The Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya concurs, with respect to the nature, design, and implementation of the activities to be financed and the method by which the costs of the activities will be financed from the Subaccount.
International Monetary Fund
Historic transitions in the Arab Spring countries are coming under increasing strain frommacroeconomic pressures and unmet social demands. Domestic uncertainty over the countries' future course, compounded by the global slowdown and rising oil prices, took a toll on growth during 2011. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 is equally challenging. The protracted political transition, lower global growth, and euro zone weakness are likely to result in a slow and drawn-out economic recovery, with unemployment at best stabilizing at high levels. Maintaining macroeconomic stability in this environment will be challenging, not least since policy buffers were reduced during 2011. Indeed, gross external and fiscal financing needs of MENA oilimporters are projected at about $93 and $103 billion, respectively, in 2012-13. With capital markets expected to provide only a small part of these funds, official financial support will be essential to allow countries to continue on their path toward economic transformation. But at the same time, countries need to make tangible progress on that path. This requires bold reform and modernization agendas that command broad consensus and are embedded in a sustainable medium-term macroeconomic policy framework to build confidence, anchor expectations, and pave the way for sustained and inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund

This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Libya has made efforts to liberalize its economy and foreign trade, achieving increasing economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. In 2006, economic conditions continued to be satisfactory. Real GDP grew about 5½ percent, reflecting an increase of 4½ percent in the value added of the hydrocarbon sector. In 2006, structural reform continued with the implementation of a wide range of measures covering fiscal management and taxation, banking and payments systems, trade, and the business environment.