In the aftermath of the revolution of 2011, Libya faces the complex task of rebuilding its economy, infrastructure, and institutions, and responding to the demands of the population, especially for improved governance. The conflict that accompanied the revolution had a severe impact on the economy, and international financial institutions have responded to the request of the Libyan authorities to provide policy consultations and technical assistantce to help maintain macroeconomic stability. Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) has taken steps to promote a peaceful political transition, normalize economic conditions, and set out a national reform agenda. In the short term, the authorities must restore security, bring hydrocarbon production fully online, exercise fiscal discipline, resuscitate the banking system, and maintain macroeconomic stability. Medium-term efforts should focus on capacity building, infrastructure renewal, private-sector development, improving education, job creation, and putting in place an effective social safety net, within a framework of transparent and accountable governance. This paper discusses the risks to economic recovery and measures to promote economic diversification and employment growth.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper discusses ways in which countries can invest most profitably in an industry that is capable of providing massive help to their economies. The paper highlights that tourism, like other economic activities, flourishes best when it fits into a context of general economic policies and programs designed to lead to the optimum growth of the economy as a whole. For this, some sort of national planning—at least in setting priorities and seeing that they are emphasized—is required to create a climate for productive investment in all suitable fields.
Following the oil price rises of late 1973 and early 1974, several organizations predicted massive accumulations of international reserves by the major oil exporting countries by the end of 1980. 1 In the event, their balance of payments surpluses on current account and their reserve accumulations have been substantially lower than expected. 2 One reason is that world economic growth has been slower than assumed. But almost certainly the major source of error concerned the absorptive capacity of the oil exporting nations. The speed with which highly ambitious development strategies could be formulated and implemented in the oil exporting countries during the period after 1973 was not anticipated by many commentators in the early days of the oil crisis. Largely as a result of these factors, the balance of payments surplus on current account of the major oil exporting countries 3 declined from $68 billion in 1974 to $35 billion in 1977; and it has been projected to decline further, to around $10 billion in 1978.4 Further, this surplus is now concentrated among five countries of relatively low absorptive capacity—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and the Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. The current account position of the other seven oil exporting countries as a group was expected to move into deficit in 1978.
Since 1972 the major oil exporting countries have absorbed an unprecedented volume of resources. Initially, high government expenditures occurred, accompanied by accelerating expansion of domestic liquidity and inflation. Conditions eased after 1975, as domestic spending slowed and supply bottlenecks lessened. This article discusses the role and effectiveness of fiscal policy, particularly in the successful efforts to stabilize the domestic economy. The conditions for effective fiscal policy in oil exporting countries are not directly affected by the revenue effects of the latest round of oil price rises.
This Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya’s 2008 Article IV Consultation is focused on containing public expenditure to reduce inflation pressures, strengthening the monetary policy framework, and advancing financial sector reforms. Libya’s macroeconomic performance has been strong. GDP growth is broad-based and has strengthened further. Both the fiscal and external current account positions are in large surplus, and net foreign assets are accumulating rapidly. The medium-term outlook is favorable, underpinned by the expectation of high oil prices and increased infrastructure spending.
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Libya has made efforts to liberalize its economy and foreign trade, achieving increasing economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. In 2006, economic conditions continued to be satisfactory. Real GDP grew about 5½ percent, reflecting an increase of 4½ percent in the value added of the hydrocarbon sector. In 2006, structural reform continued with the implementation of a wide range of measures covering fiscal management and taxation, banking and payments systems, trade, and the business environment.
Libya’s macroeconomic performance in 2008 has been strong, with real GDP growth of about 4 percent, and record fiscal and external surpluses. The staff report for Libya’s 2009 Article IV Consultation underlies economic developments and policies. The outlook has been adversely affected by the global crisis mostly through a decline in oil prices and output. This outlook is subject to downside risks relating to a further worsening in global economic conditions or a wavering of the efforts to improve the quality of public expenditure and advance structural reforms.
This Selected Issues paper aims to present a medium-term reform strategy that could be pursued by Libya to accelerate its transition to a market economy. The paper reviews the main characteristics of the Libyan economy, and medium-term prospects under current policies. It examines the priority reforms that Libya needs to implement to accelerate its transition to a market economy, while maintaining macroeconomic stability. The paper also reviews a second set of reforms that aim to consolidate the reform process and advance the restructuring of the economy in favor of the non-oil sector.