The design of appropriate stabilization policies to meet short-run and long-run balance of payments objectives under fixed exchange rates requires analysis of how fiscal and credit policies affect the balance of payments. A starting point for such an analysis is often thought to be the monetary approach to the balance of payments, which, over the past two decades, has made important contributions to the analysis of the behavior of open economies under fixed exchange rates. As is known, however, the fundamental equation of the monetary approach is one that should be satisfied by any well-specified macroeconomic structural model of an open economy. The monetary approach is not itself a structural model, but rather a framework of analysis that is compatible with diverse macroeconomic models, which in turn may each possess quite different implications for the effects of stabilization policies on the balance of payments and on other macroeconomic variables.
This paper examines the challenges and policy options after hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. The paper reviews the pros and cons of alternative monetary regimes for Zimbabwe to succeed the current multicurrency system, which the authorities consider a temporary arrangement. The analysis suggests that some form of official dollarization has significant advantages. The paper also assesses competitiveness and external sustainability in debt-distressed Zimbabwe. It also makes a case for creating fiscal space for growth and development in post-hyperinflation Zimbabwe.
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mai Chi Dao, Mr. Andreas A. Jobst, Ms. Aiko Mineshima, Ms. Srobona Mitra, and Mahmood Pradhan
This paper evaluates the impact of the crisis on European banks’ capital under a range of macroeconomic scenarios, using granular data on the size and riskiness of sectoral exposures. The analysis incorporates the important role of pandemic-related policy support, including not only regulatory relief for banks, but also policies to support businesses and households, which act to shield the financial sector from the real economic shock.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.
This paper discusses the IMF’s New Facilities for Structural Adjustment (SAF) for helping the poor. The first arrangement supported by the SAF was approved by the IMF’s Executive Board in August 1986. By the end of February 1992, 35 countries had already used resources under SAF arrangements and 19 under enhanced structural adjustment facility arrangements. For several of these, donors have used the policy framework paper as a basis for deciding their own loan commitments. It is hoped that the IMF’s part in the international effort to deal with the crisis in the poorest countries will make an effective contribution to improving their well-being in a sustainable way.