Ms. Anna Unigovskaya and Ms. Valerie A Mercer-Blackman
This paper makes use of the IMF’s Database for Monitoring Fund Arrangements (MONA) to investigate whether transition countries that more successfully implement the conditionality of IMF programs tend to show a better performance on recovery and growth. It is not possible to determine a clear-cut relationship between the index that determines the level of compliance with structural benchmarks in IMF programs and growth. However, the paper finds a definite, positive relationship between the index of compliance with performance criteria and growth, even after controlling for the extent of stabilization of the transition countries.
Recent studies have highlighted the adverse impact of corruption on economic performance. This paper advances the hypothesis that corruption is largely a symptom of underlying weaknesses in public policies and institutions, a formulation that provides deeper insights into economic performance than do measures of “perceived corruption.” The hypothesis is tested by assessing the relative importance of structural reforms vs. corruption in explaining macroeconomic performance in the transition economies. The paper finds that for four widely used measures of economic performance—growth, inflation, the fiscal balance, and foreign direct investment—structural reforms tend to dominate the corruption variable.
This 2001 Article IV Consultation for Kazakhstan highlights that real GDP growth in 2001 is expected to be about 13 percent, driven by the strong growth in the petroleum sector and associated spillover effects. Inflation has declined further to 6.4 percent in December (year-over-year). Gross international reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan have risen to US$2.5 billion, which provides for about three months of import coverage. The general government surplus is projected to be about 3.3 percent of GDP in 2001, on account of higher oil revenue, but also reflecting economic buoyancy.