Analysis and Plans, presents an assessment of 1997 survey data and a summary of improvements introduced, as a result of countries' participation in the 1997 Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, into national systems for collecting data on international (cross-border) portfolio investment The chapter reviews developments that occurred in international financial markets in the 1980s and 1990s, and the Godeaux Report assessment and recommendations about global data on international portfolio investment flows and stocks. The objectives set for the 1997 survey, the scope of survey results, and the process by which results have been assessed in the chapter. Since publication of the Godeaux Report, substantial expansion and evolution have occurred in exchange and over-the-counter markets for financial derivatives covering a range of financial risks. These markets now have the capacity, in effect, to change the currencies, maturities, and marketability of the financial instruments underlying associated derivative contracts. It is recommended that vigorous efforts should be made to secure the participation of more major investing countries in order to address the under-reporting of global portfolio investment assets and to confirm the reliability of the global data on portfolio investment liabilities.
The 1980s saw an unprecedented growth in the volume and the complexity of international financial transactions (Chart 1). This has been accompanied by a significant deterioration in the coverage and quality of the data. As a result, it has become very difficult, and at times impossible, for policymakers to base judgments on reported balance of payments statistics, particularly statistics on international capital flows. Unless appropriate action is taken, there will almost certainly be a further deterioration, with inevitable consequences for policymaking.
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This paper summarizes recent developments in the relationships between the IMF, member countries, and commercial banks, with specific reference to five European countries. The paper also highlights that Better assessment of trends in the market and of the attitude of commercial banks toward borrowing countries. These would include: a deeper analysis of capital flows, with special attention to interbank transactions; an improvement in the collection of statistical data and additional efforts made by member countries to release adequate information; and a further examination of the usefulness of setting up in the Fund an internal country risk assessment statistical model. The report also suggests that there should be adequate Fund involvement in rescheduling negotiations through discussions with Paris Club members on rescheduling patterns and possibly through an elaboration of guidelines for rescheduling bank claims; appropriate action to cope with liquidity crises; and adequate international cooperation among central banks acting as lenders of last resort.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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The rapid increase in the external debt of nonindustrial countries since 1973–74 and the corresponding rapid growth in cross-border claims of commercial banks have led to a vulnerable structure of international debt. The risks inherent in the system had been pointed out by observers for several years. These risks materialized in 1982, when the persistence of high positive real interest rates, the deepening recession in industrial countries, and political tensions in several regional areas combined to induce a series of adverse developments:
The Analysis of 1997 Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Results and Plans for the 2001 Survey (Analysis and Plans) is intended to complement the Results of the 1997 Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (1997 CPIS), which was published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January 2000. This second publication, Analysis and Plans, presents an assessment of 1997 survey data and a summary of improvements introduced, as a result of countries’ participation in the 1997 CPIS, into national systems for collecting data on international (cross-border) portfolio investment.1
The Interim Committee of the Fund’s Board of Governors, in its communique of September 25, 1989, “encouraged the IMF’s Executive Board to continue improving the analytical and empirical framework underlying multilateral surveillance, including the measurement, determinants, and systemic consequences of international capital flows.” At a meeting in December 1989, the Executive Board decided that the Fund should undertake a study on the measurement of international capital flows. To this end, it was agreed that a working party of national and international balance of payments experts, drawn from industrial and developing member countries, be constituted under the chairmanship of Baron Jean Godeaux of Belgium. To support the Working Party, a small group of technical experts was organized and attached to the Statistics Department of the Fund. An interim report was submitted to the Managing Director in December 1990.
During the 20 years from 1960 to 1980, gross external claims of banks in the BIS reporting area4 (including cross-border interbank claims) grew at an average annual rate of about 25 percent. As of December 31, 1983, they amounted to $2,024 billion ($1,085 billion excluding redepositing among reporting banks). Banks located in the United States, the United Kingdom, and offshore centers play a leading role in the expansion of gross external assets, and the U.S. dollar remains the predominant currency, representing almost three fourths of total claims (Table 1).