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International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the potential impact of oil on economic growth and policy for Cambodia. It shows that a hypothetical moderately sized oil sector would have a significant, but not overwhelming, impact on macroeconomic prospects; but reaping the benefits while avoiding economic problems would depend, in particular, on sound fiscal policies. The paper looks at the role of wage and employment policies within the broader civil service reform agenda. It also analyzes wage bill developments since the 1990s and proposes steps to accelerate pay and civil service reforms.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix examines the main developments in the real sector of Cambodia since the mid-1990s. The paper describes the path of overall GDP growth since 1994, and discusses key sectoral developments and constraints that hamper further expansion of rice output and exports as well as the private sector development. The paper reviews inflation and labor market developments since 1998. It also provides a fresh look at fiscal developments in Cambodia since the early 1990s.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Context. Economic activity remained strong driven by garments exports, real estate, and construction. Inflation decelerated strongly in late 2014 due to the sharp decline in oil prices and REER appreciation. While the outlook remains broadly positive, it is subject to substantial domestic risks as a result of rapid credit growth. External risks include weaker-than-expected growth in the EU and China and continued appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Safeguarding macro and financial stability. Rapid credit growth, increasingly financed by bank flows from abroad, and with greater exposure to the real estate and construction sectors, poses significant macro financial risks. Raising reserve requirements and introducing well-designed macroprudential policies would help to moderate the pace of credit growth. Better monitoring of real estate developments is needed to contain risks. Further strengthening banking supervision and the regulatory framework, and completing a broader crisis management framework would support macro-financial stability. Securing a strong fiscal buffer while meeting development needs. Deficits have been reduced on strong revenue performance. Continued fiscal consolidation is necessary to maintain adequate government deposits in view of spending pressures from a higher wage bill and an expected fall in official assistance. Steadfast implementation of the Revenue Mobilization Strategy is needed to safeguard fiscal space, and provide resources for development. Future public wage increases should be contingent on fiscal performance, and be accompanied by broad civil service reform. Promoting competitiveness, diversification, and inclusiveness. The changing patterns of China's trade and further regional integration through the ASEAN Economic Community provide opportunities for economic diversification. Greater investment in human capital and improving the business climate will help sustain robust growth and enhance competitiveness, foster economic diversification, and inclusiveness.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the potential impact of oil on economic growth and policy for Cambodia. It shows that a hypothetical moderately sized oil sector would have a significant, but not overwhelming, impact on macroeconomic prospects; but reaping the benefits while avoiding economic problems would depend, in particular, on sound fiscal policies. The paper looks at the role of wage and employment policies within the broader civil service reform agenda. It also analyzes wage bill developments since the 1990s and proposes steps to accelerate pay and civil service reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Cambodia remained strong with a growth rate at 7 percent in 2014, notwithstanding appreciation of the real effective exchange rate following U.S. dollar strengthening and growing competition from other low-cost garment producers. Inflation fell in 2014 and through 2015, owing to strong external disinflationary pressures from lower food and oil prices. The short-term outlook remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to remain robust at 7 percent in 2015, while inflation is projected to rise gradually to about 2 percent by end-2015. The fiscal deficit is projected to rise modestly to 2 percent in 2015 as a result of strong measures to improve revenue administration.
Ms. Louise Fox, Cleary Haines, Ms. Jorge Huerta Munoz, and Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Estimates of the current and future structure of employment in sub-Saharan Africa (2005–20) are obtained based on household survey estimates for 28 countries and an elasticity-type model that relates employment to economic growth and demographic outcomes. Agriculture still employs the majority of the labor force although workers are shifting slowly out of the sector. Sub-Saharan Africa’s projected rapid labor force growth, combined with a low baseline level of private sector wage employment, means that even if sub-Saharan Africa realizes another decade of strong growth, the share of labor force employed in private firms is not expected to rise substantially. Governments need to undertake measures to attract private enterprises that provide wage employment, but they also need to focus on improving productivity in the traditional and informal sectors as these will continue to absorb the majority of the labor force.