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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Ce numéro, intitulé « Gouvernance mondiale : qui donne le ton ? », se penche sur les enjeux — en matière de finances, de santé, d'environnement et de commerce — auxquels la communauté internationale est confrontée au XXIe siècle, et demande si le système de gouvernance mondiale actuel est équipé pour y faire face. L'article principal allègue que le système qui a servi de modèle pour la plus grande partie du XXe siècle est obsolète, et examine ce qu'il faut faire pour le renforcer. Les autres articles sur ce thème abordent la récente crise sur le marché américain des subprimes, les différences entre les crises financières des XIXe et XXe siècles et ce que l'avenir nous prépare, la nécessité d'un système plus robuste pour le commerce multilatéral, et la gestion des menaces mondiales qui pèsent sur la santé. La rubrique « Paroles d'économistes » est consacrée à Michael Kremer ; « Pleins feux » décrit l'évolution de la composition de l'aide au développement ; la rubrique « Gros plan » porte sur les Émirats arabes unis ; et « Entre nous » est consacré à l'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires. Les autres articles de cette édition portent sur le développement en Afrique et sur la reconstruction de données rétrospectives en Amérique latine.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
"El gobierno internacional: ¿Quién está a cargo?" Examina los desafíos -financieros, de la salud, el medio ambiente y el comercio- que enfrenta la comunidad internacional en el siglo XXI y se pregunta si el actual sistema de gobernanza internacional estará equipado para atenderlos. En el artículo principal se afirma que el régimen que sirvió de modelo para una gran parte del siglo XX está desactualizado y se explora la necesidad de fortalecerlo. En otros artículos sobre el mismo tema se analiza la reciente crisis del mercado de hipotecas de alto riesgo de Estados Unidos, las diferencias entre las crisis financieras del siglo XIX y el siglo XX y la forma que adoptarán las crisis del futuro, la necesidad de un sistema de comercio multilateral más sólido y la manera de abordar las amenazas para la salud mundial. En la sección "Gente del mundo de la economía" se traza una semblanza de Michael Kremer; "Bajo la lupa" ilustra el nuevo panorama de la ayuda; la sección "Panorama nacional" se centra en los Emiratos Árabes Unidos; y en "Hablando claro" se analiza el impacto del alto precio de los alimentos. En este número también se examina el desarrollo en África y la "retroproyección" de los datos correspondientes a América Latina.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper describes the importance of luck, timing, and political institutions in beating inflation. The paper highlights that countries experiencing high inflation typically make several disinflation attempts, some of which succeed only temporarily. If a country trying to stabilize prices and wages is unlucky enough to be exposed to severe external shocks—for example, a decline in demand for its exports—during its disinflation, the likelihood of failure is increased. A shock such as an increase in U.S. interest rates makes failure more likely for a country with an open capital account.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Global Governance: Who's in Charge?' examines the challenges—financial, health, environmental, and trade—facing the international community in the 21st century and asks whether today';s system of global governance is equipped to cope with them. The lead article asserts that the system that served as a model for much of the 20th century is out of date, and it explores what needs to be done to strengthen it. Other articles on this theme look at the recent U.S. subprime market crisis, the differences between financial crises of the 19th and 20th centuries and what future crises will look like, the need for a stronger system of multilateral trade, and how global health threats can be handled. 'People in Economics' profiles Michael Kremer; 'Picture This' describes the changing aid landscape; 'Country Focus' spotlights the United Arab Emirates; and 'Straight Talk' examines the impact of high food prices. Also in this issue, articles examine development in Africa, and 'backcasting' data in Latin America.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Following are edited excerpts of a press conference held after the joint meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) and the Development Committee on April 29 in Washington.

Khalid Ikram

Egypt has combined a strategy to stimulate the private sector to spearhead growth and a determination to direct resources to meet the needs of the most deprived. This dual approach, balancing private enterprise and public involvement, may have implications for many mixed economies.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened. Real GDP is projected to contract by 8.1 percent in 2020, followed by a mild recovery in 2021 reflecting persistent spread of the virus and associated social distancing and scarring. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, and uncertainty about the pandemic’s evolution is a key source of risk. Containing the spread of the virus and addressing the health crisis remain the key policy priorities. In countries where lockdowns still hamper activity, policies should focus on ensuring that firms have sufficient liquidity, and on protecting employment and income, while developing medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to safeguard debt sustainability. In countries that are easing lockdowns, efforts should focus on supporting the recovery, including through structural reforms. Once the pandemic is under control, and the recovery is on a strong footing, fiscal policy will need to focus on rebuilding buffers. Monetary policy should remain accommodative as long as inflation stays within the target range and inflation expectations are well anchored.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened. Real GDP is projected to contract by 8.1 percent in 2020, followed by a mild recovery in 2021 reflecting persistent spread of the virus and associated social distancing and scarring. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, and uncertainty about the pandemic’s evolution is a key source of risk. Containing the spread of the virus and addressing the health crisis remain the key policy priorities. In countries where lockdowns still hamper activity, policies should focus on ensuring that firms have sufficient liquidity, and on protecting employment and income, while developing medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to safeguard debt sustainability. In countries that are easing lockdowns, efforts should focus on supporting the recovery, including through structural reforms. Once the pandemic is under control, and the recovery is on a strong footing, fiscal policy will need to focus on rebuilding buffers. Monetary policy should remain accommodative as long as inflation stays within the target range and inflation expectations are well anchored.

Mr. Robert P Flood

The paper discusses a model in which growth is a negative function of fiscal burden. Moreover, growth discontinuously switches from high to low as the fiscal burden reaches a critical level. The paper provides an overview of key elements of corporate bankruptcy codes and practice around the world that are relevant to the debate on sovereign debt restructuring. It also describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and explains the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets.