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International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper for the Republic of Congo discusses economic development and policies. Domestic prices of refined petroleum products are administratively set by the authorities below import parity. Non-oil revenue in 2007 has remained about 20 percent of non-oil GDP, compared with overall fuel subsidies of about 8.3 percent of non-oil GDP. The fuel pricing policy and subsidy scheme have been established by the authorities to protect low-income households from rising energy prices.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper develops a structural macroeconomic model for Algeria that can help inform the discussion of the policy choices faced by the authorities. The model captures the core dynamics of Algeria’s macro-economy and provides an organizing framework for forecasting and policy analysis that can facilitate an assessment of the optimal policy responses to oil shocks and the implications for macroeconomic stability. This paper also examines Algeria’s main subsidies and proposes reform strategies, drawing on cross-country experiences, and discusses the channels through which a prolonged period of low oil prices may affect the banking sector, together with the policies needed to mitigate emerging financial stability risks.
Mr. Joshua E. Greene and Ms. Magda E. Kandil
Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.
Mr. Dirk V Muir
Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden form a tightly integrated region which has strong ties with the euro area as well as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we examine spillovers the region could face, focusing on possible scenarios from the rest of the euro area and Russia, and the fall in global oil prices. We show that the spillovers from these scenarios differ in magnitude and impact, regardless of the high degree of integration among the four Nordic economies. These differences are driven by the fact that Denmark and Finland have no independent monetary policy, and Denmark and Norway are net energy exporters while Finland and Sweden are energy importers. We infer lessons for policy from the outcomes.