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Mr. Dennis P Botman, Mr. Stephan Danninger, and Mr. Jerald A Schiff

Abstract

Japan’s revitalization plan, dubbed the “three arrows of Abenomics,” devises a three-pronged strategy—combining fiscal, monetary, and structural policies—to overcome that country’s apparent inability to sustain economic recovery. This book is the first comprehensive assessment of Abenomics and the reforms needed to make it a success, including aggressive monetary easing, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, and structural and financial sector reforms.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La demografía desde el ángulo económico es un análisis profundo de cómo la explosión demográfica más grande de la historia está afectando el desarrollo mundial. En este número se estudian la evolución demográfica y los efectos del envejecimiento de la población desde distintos puntos de vista —como las pensiones, la salud, los mercados financieros y la inmigración—, y se centra la atención en las repercusiones en Europa y Asia. En Bajo la lupa se observan las tendencias demográficas mundiales, en tanto que en Vuelta a lo esencial se explica el concepto del dividendo demográfico. En Panorama nacional se pasa revista a la situación de Kazajstán, y en Gente del mundo de la Economía se presenta un perfil de Robert Mundell, ganador del Premio Nobel. Por último, en Hablando claro, el Consejero Económico del FMI, Raghuram Rajan, plantea la necesidad de reformar aún más al estilo de gobierno en India.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Economics of Demographics provides a detailed look at how the biggest demographic upheaval in history is affecting global development. The issue explores demographic change and the effects of population aging from a variety of angles, including pensions, health care, financial markets, and migration, and looks specifically at the impact in Europe and Asia. Picture This looks at global demographic trends, while Back to Basics explains the concept of the demographic dividend. Country Focus spotlights Kazakhstan, while People in Economics profiles Nobel prize winner Robert Mundell. IMF Economic Counsellor Raghuram Rajan argues for further change in India's style of government in his column, Straight Talk.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Economics of Demographics provides a detailed look at how the biggest demographic upheaval in history is affecting global development. The issue explores demographic change and the effects of population aging from a variety of angles, including pensions, health care, financial markets, and migration, and looks specifically at the impact in Europe and Asia. Picture This looks at global demographic trends, while Back to Basics explains the concept of the demographic dividend. Country Focus spotlights Kazakhstan, while People in Economics profiles Nobel prize winner Robert Mundell. IMF Economic Counsellor Raghuram Rajan argues for further change in India's style of government in his column, Straight Talk.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
WHAT early warning signals should policymakers heed to avoid a repeat of a Mexico-type reversal of private capital flows? Experience suggests that a combination of indicators can provide powerful hints of approaching problems.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

Detailed annual data for Fund member governments are supplied on revenue income by source (tax, lending, bonds, etc.), and expenditure by sector (defense, education, health, etc.) for all levels of government (national, state, local). Topics covered include deficit/surplus or total financing, revenues or grants, expenditures, lending minus repayments, domestic financing, foreign financing, domestic debt or total debt, and foreign debt. The Yearbook provides data on budgetary operations, extra-budgetary operations, social security, and consolidated financial operations of central governments. A section of the Government Finance Statistics Yearbook is devoted to a cross-country comparison of data.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The global economy is projected to enter a major downturn amid a significant and deepening financial crisis. The credit turmoil that began in advanced countries has spread to emerging and developing economies, raising concerns over a synchronized slowdown and a global credit squeeze. Extraordinary policy actions globally have helped to shore up confidence, but financial markets are likely to remain under considerable stress as the process of deleveraging continues for some time and growth slows markedly. Aggressive policy easing, some stabilization in the U.S. housing market next year, and lower commodity prices should lay the groundwork for a recovery to take hold in late 2009. However, the pace of the recovery is likely to be very gradual given the considerable financial constraints on activity. Moreover, there is great uncertainty about the duration and depth of the expected downturn. Against this backdrop, growth in Asia is expected to slow substantially along with that in the rest of the world, as exports weaken and spillovers from the global financial turmoil weigh on domestic activity. The risks to the outlook are significant and firmly tilted to the downside, stemming mainly from a deeper and more-protracted global slowdown and tighter financial conditions from continued deleveraging. With commodity prices projected to ease, inflation should subside, providing room for policies to support growth and stabilize financial conditions.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Emerging Asia has recently experienced a sharp rise in inflation, although concerns have now shifted away from inflation onto growth. After reaching double-digit levels in several countries in the region and breaching the target in almost all inflation-targeting regimes, inflation has peaked in most cases through a combination of declining commodity prices, tightened monetary policy, and slowing growth. At the same time, the global financial crisis and concerns that it may translate into a hard landing for global and regional growth have understandably become the main focus of policymakers.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

While policymakers are understandably focused on short-term growth prospects in the current environment, Asia continues to face longer-term challenges to which attention will need to return over time. One of the key challenges is rapid population aging, which could have a significant macroeconomic impact on the region in coming decades. In particular, diverse demographic trends across Asia could influence external positions and, thereby, capital flows over the long term. Moreover, aging could affect returns on asset classes and change the structure of financial markets. Preemptive policy responses at both the country and regional levels would help to accommodate these aging-related changes.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.