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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

This paper discusses challenges, outlook, and risks of Gabon's economy. Gabon's economy is facing mounting headwinds. Economic activity benefited from a one-off boost in oil production in 2015, due to the introduction of new oil fields and productivity improvements, which are expected to help maintain overall growth about 4 percent in 2015. However, the slowdown in non-oil economy activity continued, led by construction, transport, commerce, and services. The main downside risk to the outlook remains weak fiscal adjustment to sharply lower oil prices. In the event of weaker-than-projected performance on oil revenues or government spending, government would be forced to substantially draw down on its deposit buffer and/or significantly increase borrowing.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on common policies for member countries of Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). It highlights that the fiscal stance should be more cautious in some countries where policy buffers are insufficient to withstand shocks. The recent easing of monetary policy has been appropriate given the positive inflation outlook. Reserves coverage remains adequate and the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with fundamentals but the issue of only partial repatriation of foreign exchange reserves by some member states needs be resolved. The fiscal surveillance framework should be revised to limit pro-cyclicality and better ensure long-term fiscal sustainability of oil-rich countries.
International Monetary Fund
This Financial System Stability Assessment on the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) discusses the overall assessment of stability, integration, and development issues of the financial sector. The paper reviews plans to strengthen the prudential and systemic liquidity frameworks and the macroeconomic risks affecting the financial sector. It also provides summary assessments of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on monetary and financial policy transparency and banking supervision.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses common policies of the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). Medium-term prospects for CEMAC are uncertain. Despite their recent stabilization, oil prices are projected to remain well below pre-shock levels in the medium term. In addition, oil production is projected to start falling after 2017. The Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to accelerate the reform of the monetary policy framework to improve transmission channels and better manage systemic liquidity. They have also stressed the importance of full compliance with the pooling of foreign exchange earnings with the regional central bank, and called for stepped-up efforts to implement outstanding safeguards recommendations.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses the common policies of the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC’s medium-term outlook remains challenging. It foresees a gradual improvement in the economic and financial situation in the region, assuming full implementation of policy commitments by CEMAC member states and regional institutions. Policies to diversify the economies by improving the business environment, including through enhanced governance and transparency, would support higher growth in the medium term. The monetary policy stance would be kept tight as needed to support external stability and reserves accumulation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.