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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is recovering strongly as ample policy space has allowed the enaction of swift and bold policy responses to address the unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple shocks, including notably the pandemic. But the recovery remains uneven, with private consumption lagging, owing, in part, to a zero- COVID tolerance approach. The financial sector has remained resilient supported by significant buffers, strong institutional frameworks, and a well-functioning Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS). Increasing financial linkages with Mainland China bring both opportunities and challenges for growth and financial stability.
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Samuel Pienknagura, and Mr. Luca A Ricci
This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. This is driven by sharp contractions in manufacturing and services (sectoral dimension), and consumption (demand dimension). Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a country’s policy space. Third, an unrest “event”, which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. Impacts differ by type of event: episodes motivated by socio-economic reasons result in sharper GDP contractions compared to those associated with politics/elections, and events triggered by a combination of both factors lead to sharpest contractions. Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest.
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio and J. Humberto Lopez
A stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy is used to analyze the origin of international business cycles using data for Germany, Japan and the United States. The findings indicate that after 1973, common shocks play a major role in accounting for similarities in output fluctuations. However, trade interdependencies with the United States may have also played a very important role; more than 20 percent of output fluctuations of the German and Japanese economies could have been imported from the United States.
Ahmat Jidoud
This paper investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model augmented with financial frictions. Empirical results indicate that remittances—as a share of GDP—have a significant smoothing impact on output volatility but their impact on consumption volatility is somewhat small. Furthermore, remittances are found to absorb a substantial amount of GDP shocks in these countries. An investigation of the theoretical channels shows that the stabilization impact of remittances essentially hinges on two channels: (i) the size of the negative wealth effect on labor supply induced by remittances and, (ii) the strength of financial frictions and the ability of remittances to alleviate these frictions.
International Monetary Fund

This 2011 Article IV Consultation reports that the Philippines is being affected along with other countries in the region by the fragile global environment. The key challenge is to navigate through the period of global uncertainty to maintain macroeconomic stability while building the foundations for faster and more inclusive growth. Domestic demand should support growth in 2012, as public spending picks up after a sharp decline in 2011, and IMF staff expects growth to rise from 3.7 percent in 2011 to 4.2 percent in 2012.

International Monetary Fund

Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1994 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period.