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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has remained generally robust against the backdrop of a sluggish global economy. Regional output is projected to expand by at least 5 percent in 2012–13, a similar pace to that recorded in 2010–11. That said, there is significant variation across the region, with solid expansion being recorded in most low-income countries, but growth slowing in middle-income countries that are tracking the global economy and in some countries affected by drought and political instability. The regional outlook is subject to downside risks, stemming from the uncertain global economic environment. Analysis of selected downside scenarios suggests that, absent a Lehman-style crash, a global slowdown would impair, but not derail, growth in the region.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has remained generally robust against the backdrop of a sluggish global economy. Regional output is projected to expand by at least 5 percent in 2012–13, a similar pace to that recorded in 2010–11. That said, there is significant variation across the region, with solid expansion being recorded in most low-income countries, but growth slowing in middle-income countries that are tracking the global economy and in some countries affected by drought and political instability. The regional outlook is subject to downside risks, stemming from the uncertain global economic environment. Analysis of selected downside scenarios suggests that, absent a Lehman-style crash, a global slowdown would impair, but not derail, growth in the region.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Intensified conflicts in Iraq and Libya have led to a downward revision in the 2014 growth projections for the MENAP oil exporters by ¾ of a percentage point compared with the May 2014 Regional Economic Outlook Update. At 2½ percent, growth in the oil exporters is expected to edge up only slightly from last year, supported by recovery in Iran and continued solid growth in the GCC countries. Growth is expected to strengthen to about 4 percent next year, assuming that security improves and oil production in non-GCC countries, particularly Libya and Iraq, recovers. In the current security environment, these projections are subject to heightened uncertainty. Declining oil revenues and rising government spending are weakening fiscal positions. Consolidation would build resilience against oil price declines and help countries share their oil wealth with future generations. Some non-GCC countries face the pressing need to draw on their savings over the near term to meet essential expenditures. Reducing the dependence of sustained economic growth on rising oil prices requires structural reforms that promote economic diversification and inclusive growth.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Intensified conflicts in Iraq and Libya have led to a downward revision in the 2014 growth projections for the MENAP oil exporters by ¾ of a percentage point compared with the May 2014 Regional Economic Outlook Update. At 2½ percent, growth in the oil exporters is expected to edge up only slightly from last year, supported by recovery in Iran and continued solid growth in the GCC countries. Growth is expected to strengthen to about 4 percent next year, assuming that security improves and oil production in non-GCC countries, particularly Libya and Iraq, recovers. In the current security environment, these projections are subject to heightened uncertainty. Declining oil revenues and rising government spending are weakening fiscal positions. Consolidation would build resilience against oil price declines and help countries share their oil wealth with future generations. Some non-GCC countries face the pressing need to draw on their savings over the near term to meet essential expenditures. Reducing the dependence of sustained economic growth on rising oil prices requires structural reforms that promote economic diversification and inclusive growth.

Mr. Yusuke Horiguchi

Abstract

From the fourth quarter of 1982 to the third quarter of 1990, the U.S. economy experienced its longest peacetime expansion. During this period, the growth of real GNP averaged 3.6 percent a year. Employment in the nonfarm business sector increased by 22 million, bringing the unemployment rate down from a peak of 10¾ percent in late 1982 to 5¼ percent during the first half of 1990. Inflation declined sharply from double digit rates in the early 1980s and remained in the 4–5 percent range throughout much of the expansion.