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This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes economic developments in Colombia during 1996–99. Output growth slowed sharply in 1996 and early 1997, but subsequently rebounded owing to stronger exports, a temporary boom in world coffee prices, and an easing of credit policy. Despite efforts at addressing the fiscal imbalances, the nonfinancial public sector deficit widened further to more than 4 percent of GDP in 1997. Monetary policy during 1996 and most of 1997 was geared toward stimulating domestic demand.
IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.
This 2011 Article IV Consultation—Selected Issues paper focuses on estimating potential output and the output gap and spillovers from agriculture in the case of Uruguay. It introduces additional economic information and theory to estimate potential output, shedding some light on the discussion of current monetary and fiscal policies. The objective is to take advantage of economic data to disentangle the most recent economic performance by introducing multivariate techniques. The paper also presents an overview of the labor market and pension system of Uruguay.
This paper discusses South Africa’s recent growth performance and its new growth targets. It analyzes the history of exchange rate volatility, compares it with other countries, and examines the relationship between volatility and trade flows in South Africa. It highlights facts on reserves holding and presents an empirical analysis of a model in assessing the adequacy of South Africa’s reserves. It also analyzes the cyclical balances to determine revenue performance and discusses the penetration of the South African financial conglomerates into State Security Agency and assesses potential vulnerabilities.
Leandro Medina, Carlos Caceres, and Ms. Ana Corbacho
In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically whether fiscal performance, measured as the level of primary fiscal balances and their volatility, indeed improved after the implementation of Fiscal Responsibility Laws in a sample of Latin American and advanced economies. We show that traditional econometric approaches, which rely on the use of dummies in time series or panel regressions, yield biased estimates. In contrast, our empirical strategy recognizes that, a priori, the timing of the effect of these laws on fiscal performance is unknown, while controlling for the impact of the business and commodity cycles on fiscal outcomes. Overall, we find limited empirical evidence in support of the view that Fiscal Responsibility Laws have had a distinguishable effect on fiscal performance. However, Fiscal Responsibility Laws could still have other positive effects on the conduct of fiscal policy not analyzed here, for instance, through enhanced transparency and guidance in the budget process and lower risk premia.
Mr. Sergi Lanau, Adrian Robles, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This
allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the
Phillips curve is relatively flat in Colombia but steeper than recent estimates for the U.S.
Supply side shocks play an important role for tradable and food prices, while indexation
dynamics are important for non-tradable goods. We show that besides allowing for a more
detailed understanding of inflation drivers, the bottom-up approach also improves on an
aggregate Phillips curve in terms of forecasting ability. In the baseline forecast scenario, both
headline and core inflation converge towards the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3 percent
by end-2018 but these favorable inflation dynamics are vulnerable to large supply shocks.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
El informe sobre las Perspectivas Económicas para las Américas abarca Estados Unidos, Canadá, América Latina y el Caribe. El informe examina la evolución reciente de la economía, analiza las perspectivas económicas y describe los riesgos y desafíos por delante.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook covers the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The report reviews recent economic developments, discusses the economic outlook, and outlines risks and challenges ahead.