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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

In the decade prior to the December 2004 tsunami, Maldives benefited from expanding tourism receipts and sound macroeconomic management to raise per capita income by 60 percent to above $2,500 and significantly improve social indicators. But the economic consequences of the tsunami were severe. Real GDP dropped by an estimated 3¾ percent in 2005, tourist arrivals fell by one-third, foreign exchange earnings plummeted, the current account deficit (exacerbated by higher oil prices) increased by 11½ percentage points of GDP, official reserves declined markedly, and the fiscal deficit surged.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Pour les dernières idées sur le système financier international, la politique monétaire, le développement économique, la lutte contre la pauvreté et d’autres questions importantes, abonnez-vous à Finances & Développement (F&D). Ce trimestriel attrayant présente des analyses approfondies sur ces thèmes et d'autres sujets, rédigées par les membres des services du FMI ainsi que par des experts de renommée internationale. Les articles sont écrits pour les non-spécialistes qui souhaitent enrichir leur compréhension des rouages de l'économie mondiale et des politiques et activités du FMI.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that the Washington Consensus helped fill the need for an economic policy framework following the discrediting of central planning and import-substitution trade strategies. Latin American governments championed the Consensus in the early 1990s, and the policy agenda delivered some of the things it was supposed to—healthier budgets, lower inflation, lower external debt ratios, and economic growth. But unemployment rose in many countries and poverty remained widespread, while the emphasis on market openness made states vulnerable to the side effects of globalization.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Near-term global financial stability risks have been contained as an unprecedented policy response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has helped avert a financial meltdown and maintain the flow of credit to the economy. For the first time, many emerging market central banks have launched asset purchase programs to support the smooth functioning of financial markets and the overall economy. But the outlook remains highly uncertain, and vulnerabilities are rising, representing potential headwinds to recovery. The report presents an assessment of the real-financial disconnect, as well as forward-looking analysis of nonfinancial firms, banks, and emerging market capital flows. After the outbreak, firms’ cash flows were adversely affected as economic activity declined sharply. More vulnerable firms—those with weaker solvency and liquidity positions and smaller size—experienced greater financial stress than their peers in the early stages of the crisis. As the crisis unfolds, corporate liquidity pressures may morph into insolvencies, especially if the recovery is delayed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable than large firms with access to capital markets. Although the global banking system is well capitalized, some banking systems may experience capital shortfalls in an adverse scenario, even with the currently deployed policy measures. The report also assesses the pandemic’s impact on firms’ environmental performance to gauge the extent to which the crisis may result in a reversal of the gains posted in recent years.

Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Mr. Marcos d Chamon

Abstract

The way countries structure their public borrowing has long been considered an important determinant of economic performance. This topic has recently received renewed attention as a result of not only steep increases in public debt levels in emerging market countries—and a number of highly visible and damaging crises—but also pronounced changes in the composition of those debts.1 There is increasing recognition that debt structure has important implications for both the frequency of crises and the disruption they cause when they strike.2 Indeed, the official sector is beginning to give renewed prominence to the possible need for innovations in the design of countries’ financial liabilities.3

Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Mr. Marcos d Chamon

Abstract

Public debt in emerging market countries differs in several respects from that in advanced economies. First, average debt levels were traditionally equivalent to a lower share of GDP in emerging market countries than they were in advanced economies; the gap has closed in recent years, partly as a result of reductions in the debt of advanced economies (Figure 1). Second, reliance on externally issued debt has been far greater in emerging market countries than in advanced economies. Third, while the structure of external debt of emerging market countries is similar to that of advanced economies, the structure of their domestic debt—in terms of maturity, currency composition, and the prevalence of indexed debt—is very different.1

Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, Mr. Paolo Mauro, Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Mr. Marcos d Chamon

Abstract

Existing debt structures in emerging market countries seem to rely excessively on risky forms of debt—such as short-term and foreign-currency debt—which may amplify the economic cycle, increase the likelihood of crises, and make crises more difficult to manage. Increases in risky forms of debt may be the result of worsening debt sustainability, but they also reinforce the rise in vulnerability.