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Mr. Michael P. Dooley

This paper reviews the World Bank lending for structural adjustment. The World Bank has always stressed the need to use limited investable resources efficiently. It has attempted to identify investment priorities in recipient countries and lent for projects that promised a high rate of return. The Bank’s Operational Manual defines structural adjustment lending as nonproject lending to support programs of policy and institutional change necessary to modify the structure of an economy so that it can maintain both its growth rate and the viability of its balance of payments in the medium term.

Rui Xu and Kaiji Gong
We analyze the impact of rising import competition from China on U.S. innovative activities. Using Compustat data, we find that import competition induces R&D expenditures to be reallocated towards more productive and more profitable firms within each industry. Such reallocation effect has the potential to offset the average drop in firm-level R&D identified in the previous literature. Indeed, our quantitative analysis shows no adverse impact of import competition on aggregate R&D expenditures. Taking the analysis beyond manufacturing, we find that import competition has led to reallocation of researchers towards booming service industries, including business and repairs, personal services, and financial services.
Fumiko Hayashi, Ms. Grace B Li, and Zhu Wang
This paper examines innovation, deregulation, and firm dynamics over the life cycle of the U.S. ATM and debit card industry. In doing so, we construct a dynamic equilibrium model to study how a major product innovation (introducing the new debit card function) interacted with banking deregulation drove the industry shakeout. Calibrating the model to a novel dataset on ATM network entry, exit, size, and product offerings shows that our theory fits the quantitative pattern of the industry well. The model also allows us to conduct counterfactual analyses to evaluate the respective roles that innovation and deregulation played in the industry evolution.
Mr. Malhar S Nabar and Mr. Papa M N'Diaye
China’s current growth model—which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty—has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns. Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases. On the other hand, with reforms to accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from its continued reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain its convergence toward the level of high income economies. Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain such a convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Afghanistan remains a poor fragile state that is far from self-reliance. Significant fiscal and banking vulnerabilities emerged in 2014. Domestic revenue collection fell below its 2013 level because of lower growth, declining imports, and lower compliance, while operating expenditure increased. The treasury cash balance fell to dangerously low levels in the second half of 2014, and domestic payment arrears and unfunded allotments emerged. The future path of the economy is highly dependent on the authorities' delivering on their economic reform commitments, continued donor support, and improvements in security.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper reviews the key institutions and arrangements for economic policymaking that were expected to be put in place following the transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong to China in 1997. International treaties between Britain and China from the nineteenth century are reviewed. The paper discusses Hong Kong’s current and future constitutional documents—the Letters Patent and Royal Instructions, and the Basic Law, respectively. The paper also provides a background on the system of government in Hong Kong in 1997.