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International Monetary Fund

Abstract

What is the human cost of the global economic crisis? How many people will the crisis prevent from escaping poverty, and how many will remain hungry? How many more infants will die? Are children being pulled out of schools, making it virtually impossible to reach 100 percent completion in primary education by 2015? What are the gender dimensions of the impacts? These are some of the questions as the global economy comes out of the worst recession since the Great Depression.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Historically, periods of sharp contraction have been extremely harmful for human development. Social indicators tend to deteriorate rapidly during economic downturns and improve slowly during economic booms. Moreover, vulnerable groups, such as children and women, are more exposed to the effects of growth volatility.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The recovery of the global economy has been more robust than expected. Driven by strong internal demand in many emerging economies and the recovery of global trade, GDP growth in emerging and developing countries is projected to accelerate to 6.3 percent in 2010, from 2.4 percent in 2009. Supporting the economic recovery are expansionary macroeconomic and, especially, fiscal policies. Fiscal deficits in emerging and developing countries, up by almost 3 percent of GDP in 2009, are projected to remain high in 2010. More than in previous crises, many countries sustained spending plans and raised social spending to mitigate the effects of the downturn on the poorest people, although the differences among countries are wide. While financial market conditions for emerging and developing countries are improving and capital flows are returning, international bank financing and foreign direct investment are projected to remain weak in 2010.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

How will the global economic crisis alter precrisis trends in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)? With only five years left until the target date of 2015, it is obvious that several of the MDGs will not be attained, globally or by a majority of countries. Many of the goals are too high for low-income countries, given their low starting points. Many countries, including low-income ones, have seen substantial gains in recent years, however, and entered the current crisis in a stronger position than in past crises (chapter 1 and chapter 2). Important questions are whether the gains will be preserved, and what happens if the fragile recovery slips into a prolonged stagnation.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The global economic crisis severely reduced developing-country external resources by drastically curtailing their export revenues and their access to private capital flows. As elaborated in previous chapters, the resulting decline in economic activity sharply increased poverty and impaired public services to the poor. To a degree, the international system worked effectively to support developing-country access to external resources and limit the rise in poverty. Despite initial fears, increased trade restrictions in reaction to the crisis affected only a small part of international trade. Bilateral donors increased aid (at least through 2008), and the international financial institutions (IFIs) dramatically increased their lending. As the global recovery has taken hold, developing-country export revenues have begun to recover, and their access to external finance to improve, although both remain well below precrisis levels.

International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

On behalf of the United States, it’s an honor to welcome you to Washington for your Fiftieth Annual Meeting. And I am especially pleased to have the opportunity to speak to this group at a moment when you can see the fruits of your labors.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper analyzes the linkages between capital account liberalization and other policies influencing financial sector stability. Drawing on country experiences, the paper develops an operational framework for sequencing and coordinating capital account liberalization with other policies aimed at maintaining financial sector stability. Based on the general principles, a methodology for sequencing capital account liberalization is presented in this paper. This methodology, which is illustrated by an example, involves an assessment of capital controls and macroeconomic and financial sector vulnerabilities, and the design of a plan for sequencing capital account liberalization with financial sector reforms and other policies. Financial systems that have been weakened by inappropriate government involvement also face additional risks when operating in international financial markets. The absence of significant macroeconomic imbalances and the high level of official international reserves at the outset of the crisis also appear to be important factors preventing a full-blown exchange crisis. Nevertheless, the prolongation of the crisis lowered economic growth and ultimately led to a recession and increased the total cost of the crisis resolution.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper analyzes the linkages between capital account liberalization and other policies influencing financial sector stability. Drawing on country experiences, the paper develops an operational framework for sequencing and coordinating capital account liberalization with other policies aimed at maintaining financial sector stability. Based on the general principles, a methodology for sequencing capital account liberalization is presented in this paper. This methodology, which is illustrated by an example, involves an assessment of capital controls and macroeconomic and financial sector vulnerabilities, and the design of a plan for sequencing capital account liberalization with financial sector reforms and other policies. Financial systems that have been weakened by inappropriate government involvement also face additional risks when operating in international financial markets. The absence of significant macroeconomic imbalances and the high level of official international reserves at the outset of the crisis also appear to be important factors preventing a full-blown exchange crisis. Nevertheless, the prolongation of the crisis lowered economic growth and ultimately led to a recession and increased the total cost of the crisis resolution.