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Hans P. Binswanger

This paper discusses quantitative indicators that measure such macroeconomic variables as the growth of national product, inflation. The importance of considering several indicators in a dynamic context becomes particularly relevant during periods when needed economic and financial adjustment measures are undertaken. Rationales given for maintaining negative real interest rates in developing countries range from keeping down the cost of servicing the public sector’s debt, or of investment, to avoiding the consequences of other policies.

International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sectoral trends and the impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) changes on sectoral exports using the detailed product data from the United Nations’ Commodity Trade Statistics Database (Comtrade). This paper focuses on Uruguay’s product- and sector-specific global export market shares. It also estimates the sensitivity of these market shares to real effective exchange rate by using the product data from the Comtrade database and building on the work presented in IMF (2017). The paper estimates the elasticities of product market shares with respect to real exchange rates for Uruguay only. Rather than using time dummies to isolate the potential impact of the time trend, the lagged value of the change in shares as an additional independent variable has been added. The paper concludes that Uruguay’s manufacturing exports are sensitive to the changes in REER, and, accordingly, that productivity-enhancing measures to promote competitiveness would be beneficial.
Sayuri Shirai
This paper provides a theoretical model to address the issue of how industrialization affects the structure of international trade. Considering both horizontal and vertical product differentiation, the model shows that intra-industry trade increases when product quality improvement emerges in a developing country and when a difference in relative factor endowments between a developed and a developing countries shrinks. To promote understanding of the conclusions of the model, the paper also uses actual trade data between Japan and Indonesia and between Japan and Korea.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents updated and revised estimates for the World Trade Model. The model estimates import and export price and volume relationships for each of three types of merchandise trade--manufactured, raw material, and agricultural--for 14 of the largest industrial countries. The extended data set has generally resulted in estimated price and volume equations that fit the data better than previous versions of the model. In addition, the simulation properties of the model have been enhanced by imposing long-run activity elasticities of unity on the activity terms in the demand for imported manufactures equations.
Ms. Giorgia Albertin
This paper investigates whether a regional bloc would enlarge or remain stagnant in size using a model where enlargement is the endogenous outcome of the interaction between the supply of and demand for membership. We show that a maximum size of the bloc exists beyond which the regional policy-maker will be unwilling to enlarge further, and that either the supply side or the demand side of membership might be binding in the determination of the equilibrium size of the bloc. Furthermore, we analyze how the deepening of integration within a regional bloc affects its width. We show that deeper integration may lead to wider integration when the demand side of membership is binding in the determination of the equilibrium size of the bloc, while the equilibrium size of the bloc will be unaffected when the supply side of membership is binding.
Mr. James M. Boughton
The low level of primary commodity prices since 1985 is examined in the context of the behavior of those prices relative to prices of manufactured goods since 1854. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in relative commodity prices is sustained, but the recent decline is shown to be well outside the realm of historical experience. Commodity and manufactures prices are found to be cointegrated, conditional on the negative trend and a number of unexplained short-term swings. The earlier finding of a Gibson paradox is explained in terms of the difference between short- and long-run relationships.