This paper describes economic developments in Chile during 1990–95. In part, as a result of the tight monetary policy introduced in early 1992, real GDP growth declined from 11 percent in 1992 to 6 percent in 1993 and further to about 4 percent in 1994. The monetary stance was gradually eased starting in October 1994, and output growth rebounded to 6.6 percent in the first quarter of 1995 compared with the same period of the previous year. Nevertheless, the 12-month rate of inflation fell to 7.9 percent in July 1995.
Guinea is making good progress in recovering from a long period of social unrest and military rule. Macroeconomic imbalances have been reduced, major structural reforms are under way, and long-neglected infrastructure is being rebuilt. However, the political transition process is still incomplete, with parliamentary elections having been delayed, and social tensions persist. Guinea remains vulnerable to developments in international markets, but risks are mitigated by long-term mining contracts; the key food import is rice, where recent international price increases have been modest and where agricultural reforms seek to boost domestic production.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGuinea is suffering from an outbreak of Ebola, which has become a humanitarian crisis with a significant economic impact. Preliminary estimates suggest a negative impact on 2014 growth, which will be markedly lower. Government revenue is showing a substantial shortfall and the response to the Ebola outbreak entails additional critical spending needs. The exchange rate has started to depreciate. The authorities intend to adopt a tighter monetary policy to address the transitory balance of payments shock.Performance under the ECF-supported program has remained satisfactory. Preliminary data indicate that all performance criteria (PCs) under the program for end-June 2014 were met. There has also been further progress with structural reform.The authorities have requested additional IMF financial assistance to meet urgent fiscal and balance of payments needs not anticipated at the time of the recent program review. Such assistance cannot be provided in the form of an augmentation of access under the ECF arrangement at this time since a review associated with the most recent availability date has not yet been completed because of delays in program implementation associated with the 2013 parliamentary elections. The authorities have requested a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) because the urgent balance of payments need is characterized by a financing gap that, if not addressed, would result in an immediate and severe economic disruption. Moreover, Guinea�s balance of payments difficulties are caused primarily by a sudden exogenous shock and not by a withdrawal of financial support by donors, and its balance of payments need is expected to be resolved within one year with no major policy adjustments being necessary. As such polices remain guided by the objectives of the ECF-supported program.Staff supports the authorities� request for a disbursement under the RCF of25 percent of quota (SDR 26.775 million). It also supports the authorities� request for a modification of the end-September indicative targets and end-December 2014 PCs underthe ECF arrangement, including program adjustors.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances. Growth is projected at 4.5 percent for 2013, slightly lower than envisaged because of lower growth in the mining sector. The programs inflation target has been revised upward slightly, mainly reflecting the higher than programmed outcome at end-2012, together with some modest impact from an agreement on increases in civil service wages. Key risks include continued political unrest in the run-up to elections, which could affect growth, investment, and reform momentum, and a rebound in inflation if the private sector follows the increase in civil service wages.
Guinea was declared free of the Ebola epidemic at end-2015 and after two years of stagnant activity, growth is expected to rebound this year. Pent-up demand coupled with robust agricultural growth, and improved electricity provision will be the main drivers of activity, lifting growth to around 4 percent. However, given the severity of the shocks that have hit Guinea during 2014-15 and continued depressed commodities prices, the recovery is expected to be gradual and will need to be supported by policies to restore macroeconomic stability and rebuild domestic and external buffers. Structural reforms are also needed to improve the business environment, including in the mining sector, and strengthen the delivery of public service.
This paper discusses Guinea’s Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and Financing Assurances Review. The macroeconomic environment in 2013 was difficult, reflecting the fragile socio-political situation and a sharp slowdown in mining sector projects. As a result, growth is estimated to have slowed to 2.5 percent, sharply below the projected 4.5 percent. Inflation continued to fall and at end-2013 was 10.5 percent year-over-year. Performance under the ECF-supported program remains satisfactory. IMF Staff supports the completion of the third review under the ECF arrangement and completing the financing assurances review.
The economic growth of Lao P.D.R. was buoyed by mining and hydropower sectors, garment exports, non-regional tourism, and FDI inflows following the recovery from the global economic crisis. The Bank of Lao P.D.R. (BoL) also raised its overdraft lending rate. Net domestic assets of the BoL continued to expand rapidly net injections of liquidity into the banking system, and an expansion of other assets. Medium-term economic prospects, macroeconomic and financial policies, accelerated structural reforms to diversify the economy, improve the business climate, and foster trade.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes sources of growth in Zambia. It assesses domestic debt dynamics and expenditure composition under two scenarios: first, the execution of the fiscal adjustment envisaged in the 2004 budget and in the medium-term framework; and second, the continuation of recent trends. The paper assesses movements in the external value of the kwacha using a number of different approaches. It also looks at developments in the real exchange rate and in differentials in rates of return on financial assets in Zambia and key financial centers.
Résumé analytique. L’activité économique est restée déprimée au début de 2014. Depuis la fin de 2013, elle souffre des conséquences de l’épidémie du virus Ébola, mais il se peut que le retard pris dans l’exécution des réformes structurelles, les pénuries d’énergie et l’incertitude politique entrent également en jeu. La croissance économique a été estimée à 2,3 % en 2013, et devrait s’établir à 3,5 % en 2014, grâce à la hausse de l’investissement public et en supposant la reprise graduelle de l’investissement dans le secteur minier. L’inflation est tombée à moins de 10 % en glissement annuel en mai 2014, les réserves internationales couvraient 3,6 mois d’importations à la fin de 2013, et le taux de change est resté stable. Les résultats dans le cadre du programme appuyé par la FEC demeurent globalement satisfaisants, malgré la lente mise en œuvre des réformes structurelles. Tous les critères de réalisation pour la fin de 2013 et tous les objectifs indicatifs du programme pour mars 2014 sauf un (le plancher de dépenses dans les secteurs prioritaires) ont été observés. Les repères structurels pour le second semestre de 2013 et le début de 2014 n’ont cependant pu être respectés dans les délais prévus. Les entretiens ont porté sur : i) les perspectives de croissance pour 2014; ii) une rallonge budgétaire pour 2014 compte tenu du manque à gagner sur les recettes et des besoins supplémentaires de dépenses; iii) les progrès dans la mise en œuvre des réformes structurelles; et iv) la gestion de la dette. Les risques pesant s