The Executive Board of the IMF has completed the fifth review of Angola’s economic performance under a program supported by the Stand-By Arrangement. The Board’s decision enables the immediate disbursement of an amount equal to SDR 85.9 million, bringing total disbursements under the arrangement with Angola to an amount equal to SDR 773.01 million. The Angolan authorities should be commended for strong performance under the IMF-supported stabilization and reform program. The sustained fiscal adjustment, helped by higher oil prices, has fostered reserve accumulation, a stable exchange rate, and declining inflation.
This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic fiscal risks and the benefits of improved fiscal risk management in Angola. Angola faces fiscal risks coming from multiple sources, such as volatility in oil prices and production, macroeconomic shocks, weak macroeconomic forecasting; weaknesses in public fiscal management, energy subsidies, potential delays of oil revenue transfers from the state-owned oil company Sonangol to the Treasury, and contingent liabilities from state-owned banks and enterprises. Addressing these risks requires action in various fronts, including more transparent fiscal reporting, improved forecasting of fiscal aggregates and other macroeconomic variables, developing a fiscal stabilization fund with more flexible deposit and withdrawal rules, strengthened public expenditure controls, and more timely oil revenue transfers from Sonangol to the Treasury.
This Selected Issues paper on Angola reports that oil production in Angola accounts for about half of GDP and about 75 percent of government revenue. The projections for the government’s fiscal position in the medium term will be crucially dependent on both the value of oil production and the proportion that will accrue to the government. However, in addition to the usual uncertainties associated with projections of the total value of oil output, the government’s share has been subject to volatility.
Several years of high inflation rates have negatively affected economic conditions in Angola. Macroeconomic stabilization in Angola entails strict control over central bank credit to the government, an ending of the quasi-fiscal expenditures, and a reduction of the national bank of Angola’s deficit. Reserve adequacy is an important factor for stable economic development and management. This note reviews some of the main challenges faced by Angola's policymakers in launching a credible subsidy reform, and also reviews the sources and uses of state oil revenue in Angola.
The Angolan government’s efforts to achieve macroeconomic stability to bring inflation and fiscal deficit considerably down are paying off despite high vulnerability to oil revenue shocks. The expected overall growth of up to 7 percent will be contributed to by increased oil production, multiple public investment programs, tax administration reforms, and inflation control. Concentrating on a medium-term fiscal framework, structural transformation and diversification are expected to reinforce the economy. The Executive Board, which welcomed the Stand-By-Arrangement and Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), suggested removing exchange restrictions.
KEY ISSUESContext and outlook: Angola’s recent economic developments have been positive, but softening oil revenue and limited proven oil reserves highlight the need to contain emerging fiscal deficits, preserve policy buffers, and continue diversifying the economy.Focus of consultation: Discussions focused on mitigating the main risks to the macroeconomic framework and, inter alia, policies to return to structural fiscal surpluses over the medium term, and to support economic diversification and inclusive growth, the modernization of the monetary policy framework, and financial stability.Key policy recommendations:• Return to structural fiscal surpluses in line with the objective set forth in Angola’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, by mobilizing additional nonoil tax revenue, improving the efficiency of public investment, and reducing current spending, including by phasing out the costly and regressive fuel subsidies—while mitigating the impact on the poor through well-targeted social assistance.• Adopt an improved medium-term fiscal framework, focusing on the structural fiscal balance to limit the impact of the oil sector on the nonoil economy.• Develop a coherent asset-liability management framework, including awell-designed stabilization fund to shield the budget from oil revenue fluctuations.• Further improve public financial management systems to avoid, inter alia, a recurrence in the future of domestic payments arrears.• Continue improving the business climate to boost economic development, diversification, and competitiveness.• In transitioning over the medium-term toward an inflation targeting regime, enhance the central bank’s capacity to collect and analyze high-frequency economic data, and continue de-dollarizing the economy.• Further strengthen the financial system, by continuing to improve the transparency and accountability of banks, and enhancing bank supervision.• Manage public guarantees transparently and with a view to minimize fiscal costs, as envisaged in the recently-approved law on public guarantees.
Third Review under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Applicability of Performance Criterion, Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Completion of Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
Mr. Mauro Mecagni, Mr. Juan S Corrales, Mr. Jemma Dridi, Mr. Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Patrick A. Imam, Mr. Justin Matz, Ms. Carla Macario, Mr. Rodolfo Maino, Mr. Yibin Mu, Ashwin Moheeput, Mr. Futoshi Narita, Mr. Marco Pani, Mr. Manuel Rosales Torres, Mr. Sebastian Weber, and Mr. Etienne B Yehoue
Dollarization—the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account—is a notable feature of financial development under macroeconomically fragile conditions. It has emerged as a key factor explaining vulnerabilities and currency crises, which have long been observed in Latin America, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe. Dollarization is also present, prominently, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it remains significant and persistent at over 30 percent rates for both bank loans and deposits—although it has not increased significantly since 2001. However, progress in reducing dollarization has lagged behind other regions and, in this regard, it is legitimate to ask whether this phenomenon is an important concern in SSA. This study fills a gap in the literature by analyzing these issues with specific reference to the SSA region on the basis of the evidence for the past decade.