The Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) on Burundi focus on the implementation of the interim PRSP. The implementation of the Interim PRSP has been undertaken in a relatively difficult social and political context, as Burundi is still involved in a process of normalizing and democratizing its political life. The experience acquired in the process of formulating the I-PRSP showed gaps in the dissemination of information to the public at large, as well as gaps in the understanding of the PRSP process on the part of all the social and economic development players in Burundi.
Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, Mr. Anupam Basu, and Mr. Anthony E Calamitsis
This paper analyzes the factors affecting economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, using data for 1981–97. The results indicate that per capita real GDP growth is positively influenced by economic policies that raise the ratio of private investment to GDP, promote human capital development, lower the ratio of the budget deficit to GDP, safeguard external competitiveness, and stimulate export volume growth. The favorable evolution of these variables played an important role in the region’s apparent postreform recovery of 1995–97. The paper also discusses a policy framework to promote sustainable economic growth and reduce poverty in sub-Saharan Africa
KEY ISSUESContext: Since the last Article IV Consultation in 2012, notable progress has been achieved to enhance macroeconomic stability, underpinned by the Fund-supported program. However, continued progress could be tested as the country faces a more challenging environment, due to increasing social and political tensions and frequent strikes in the run-up to the 2015 elections. Moreover, recent political developments reinforce uncertainties surrounding external budget support.Program: The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on January 27, 2012, with a total access of SDR 30 million. The first, second, third, and fourth reviews were completed on July 27, 2012, February 14, 2013, September 6, 2013, and February 28, 2014, respectively. For the fifth review, all end-March performance criteria were observed, but fiscal revenues underperformed in the first quarter of 2014 requiring corrective fiscal measures (about 1 percent of GDP on an annual basis). Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms, albeit with some delays.Outlook and risks: The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is challenging. The principal near-term risk is an intensification of election-related uncertainty, economic disruptions and violence, which would affect investment and growth. Governance issues or delays in making measurable progress in public financial management (PFM) reforms, and heightening of political tensions could curtail donor support. Reintegrating repatriated refugees is likely to add to unemployment pressures, increase demand for public services, and exacerbate social conflict over access to land.Staff Views: The staff recommends the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement, setting of revised performance criteria and indicative targets for September�December 2014, and disbursement of SDR 5 million. The authorities have consented to the publication of this report following the completion of the review.
Burundi is emerging from more than a decade of civil conflict that started with the 1993 coup d’état against its first elected government. Macroeconomic developments in 2005 were broadly in line with the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) program, although growth was lower at about 1 percent, largely because of a poor coffee harvest and worsening drought in the north. The 2006 budget, adopted in late 2005, envisaged a drop in revenues to 18.9 percent of GDP and spending of 40.8 percent of GDP.