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International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Detailed Assessment of the Securities Clearance and Settlement Systems for Denmark. The assessment recommends that securities settlement systems should have a well-founded, clear, and transparent legal basis in the relevant jurisdiction. Confirmation of trades between market participants should occur as soon as possible after trade execution, but no later than trade date (T+0). Where confirmation of trades by indirect market participants is required, it should occur as soon as possible after trade execution, preferably on T+0, but no later than T+1.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Background Issues paper analyzes the competitiveness issues for Belgium and analyzes in what sense competitiveness is important for the country. The paper summarizes the approach followed in Belgium to measure developments in this respect. It discusses alternative indicators, including the current account of the balance of payments, and concludes that competitiveness is not currently a problem in Belgium. The paper also analyzes the rise in the current account surplus, and links it to the saving-investment balance.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes investment slowdown in Denmark. The post-global financial crisis (GFC) weakness in Denmark’s aggregate investment cannot be fully explained by the output slowdown. The baseline accelerator model confirms that output slowdown played a role, but post-GFC investment has fallen beyond the level explained by output movements in most of the post-GFC period. Most recently, investment converged to the level explained by output movements. The augmented accelerator model suggests that additional factors, such as high leverage, weak competition, and elevated policy uncertainty, also had a significant impact. Panel regressions using a panel of advanced economies show that reduction in leverage and product market reforms can boost investment in the medium term. Well-designed policies are needed to boost private investment.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdependence is a factor in understanding the spread of currency crises; can remittance payments from expatriates be a reliable source of capital for economic development?; total factor productivity; designing a VAT for the energy trade in Russia and Ukraine; and lastly, a discussion of the reasons for central bank intervention in ERM-I since 1993
Boriana Yontcheva
This paper presents a dynamic game of strategic delegation between a principal and an agent. The principal can choose between two organizational designs: a traditional hierarchy where she retains authority over the choice of projects to be implemented or a delegation where she allows her agent to select the project. The key objectives of this model are to identify the long-run determinants of the principal’s choice and verify the impact of the authority allocation on the agent’s effort levels and on the principal’s payoffs. We apply the model to the relationships between institutional donors and nongovernmental organizations.
Mr. Peter B. Kenen and Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.
S. Micossi and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
This paper attempts to provide a perspective on real exchange rate developments following the inception of the EMS. The focus is on structural determinants of real exchange rates, notably the behavior of tradables and nontradable prices and productivity. It is found that changes in the relative price of tradable goods in terms of nontradables account for a sizable fraction of real exchange rate dynamics during the EMS period. Sectoral productivity growth differential help explain the behavior of the relative price of tradable goods, especially in the long run. There is also some evidence that the EMS has extended on relative price behavior.
Mr. Alessandro Prati and Francesco Drudi
This paper proposes a signaling model that offers a new perspective on why governments deviate from optimal tax smoothing and delay debt stabilization. In our model, dependable—but not fully credible—governments have an incentive to tighten the fiscal regime when the signaling effect on credit ratings is larger (that is, when a sufficiently large stock of debt has been accumulated). At this point, they may deviate from tax smoothing not to be mimicked by weak governments. The model predicts that primary balances and debt stocks are complementary inputs in the credit rating function as tests on Italian, Irish, Belgian, and Danish data show.
Mr. Donald J Mathieson, Mr. Robert P Flood, and Mr. Andrew K. Rose
In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of nonlinearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. Many implications of existing “target-zone” exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing nonlinear models of limited exchange rate flexibility.
Mr. Martin Cihak and Mr. Klaus Schaeck
We use data for more than 2,600 European banks to test whether increased competition causes banks to hold higher capital ratios. Employing panel data techniques, and distinguishing between the competitive conduct of small and large banks, we show that banks tend to hold higher capital ratios when operating in a more competitive environment. This result holds when controlling for the degree of concentration in banking systems, inter-industry competition, characteristics of the wider financial system, and the regulatory and institutional environment.