This Selected Issues paper on Angola reports that oil production in Angola accounts for about half of GDP and about 75 percent of government revenue. The projections for the government’s fiscal position in the medium term will be crucially dependent on both the value of oil production and the proportion that will accrue to the government. However, in addition to the usual uncertainties associated with projections of the total value of oil output, the government’s share has been subject to volatility.
This Technical Assistance Report on Angola highlights that the Angolan authorities’ plan to scale up priority spending will intensify fiscal pressures. The overall fiscal balance is projected to reach a deficit of about 4 percent of GDP in 2014, owing to a temporary decline in oil production. Besides being fiscally costly, fuel subsidies are inefficient and inequitable. They crowd out growth-enhancing spending?Angola’s spending in fuel subsidies is roughly the same as outlays in education and 42 percent larger than health-spending countries. In addition, they provide rent seeking opportunities and raise governance challenges. Furthermore, subsidies create incentives for overconsumption and in turn worsen traffic congestion and accidents?after malaria, road accidents are the second leading cause of death in Angola. Moreover, because most of the benefits of fuel price subsidies accrue to well-off households, they reinforce inequality?more than 50 percent of subsidies go to households in the top 20 percent of the income distribution. The authorities plan to reduce fuel subsidies gradually. This report provides a reform option that would eliminate fuel subsidies and result in fiscal savings of 2 percent of GDP.
This paper discusses a request from Angola for a Stand-By-Arrangement (SBA). The requested SBA aims to support orderly policy adjustments to restore macroeconomic balances and rebuild international reserves. This program also includes a focused reform agenda aimed at medium-term structural issues on which long-term non-oil sector growth will ultimately depend. IMF staff and the authorities have agreed that, while the policy mix should consider all possible instruments geared toward achieving these objectives, fiscal policy should play the lead role in the policy package.
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix on Angola underlie monetary policy framework. Angola has adopted an anti-inflation policy that has led to a sharp decline in inflation. To institute a monetary policy framework, a nominal anchor or constraint on the value of domestic currency must be established. Additional work to fine-tune the measures of currency in circulation, conduct more sophisticated tests to assess the relationship between inflation and the monetary aggregates, and determine how to incorporate the currency measure in monetary operations is needed.
Several years of high inflation rates have negatively affected economic conditions in Angola. Macroeconomic stabilization in Angola entails strict control over central bank credit to the government, an ending of the quasi-fiscal expenditures, and a reduction of the national bank of Angola’s deficit. Reserve adequacy is an important factor for stable economic development and management. This note reviews some of the main challenges faced by Angola's policymakers in launching a credible subsidy reform, and also reviews the sources and uses of state oil revenue in Angola.
This paper discusses initial performance of the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) Macroeconomic Convergence Program. The SADC’s regional economic integration agenda includes a macroeconomic convergence program, intended to achieve and maintain macroeconomic stability in the region, thereby contributing to faster economic growth and laying the basis for eventual monetary union. As macroeconomic performance in the SADC region has improved in recent years, most countries are making progress toward, and in many cases exceeding, the convergence criteria. Most SADC member states have recorded solid macroeconomic performance in recent years, in general coming close too, and in many cases surpassing, the convergence targets specified for 2008. A notable exception in this regard is Zimbabwe, which was in the grip of hyperinflation. The macroeconomic targets for later years are ambitious and, in some cases, warrant further evaluation, given that achieving the targets may be neither necessary nor enough to achieve good macroeconomic results.
Amine Hammadi, Marshall Mills, Nelson Sobrinho, Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, and Ricardo Velloso
Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) tend to lag those in most other regions in terms of
governance and perceptions of corruption. Weak governance undermines economic
performance through various channels, including deficiencies in government functions and
distortions to economic incentives. It thus stands to reason that SSA countries could
strengthen their economic performance by improving governance and reducing corruption.
This paper estimates that strengthening governance and mitigating corruption in the region
could be associated with large growth dividends in the long run. While the process would
take considerable time and effort, moving the average SSA country governance level to the
global average could increase the region’s GDP per capita growth by about 1-2 percentage
In recent years, the decline in inflation in Angola has stalled and further steps may be needed to attain the authorities' medium term goal of meeting the Southern African Development Community (SADC) convergence criteria of a low single digit inflation rate. A Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which analyzes the factors that affect the inflationary process in Angola, suggests that the inflation path has been largely affected by exchange rate movements. This implies that greater exchange rate flexibility that facilitates a gradual appreciation would be instrumental to moderate price growth through reducing the price of imports and limiting liquidity injection by the National Bank of Angola (BNA). Additionally, the analysis shows that excess liquidity, which is measured by positive deviations of M2 from its equilibrium level, adds to demand pressures, and contributes to inflation with a lag. This underlines the importance of closely monitoring the growth of monetary aggregates as well as improving liquidity management.
Jose Giancarlo Gasha and Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos
This paper discusses the nature of Angola's disinflation strategy in recent years, with special emphasis on the most recent efforts by the Angolan authorities to stabilize the economy. Looking to the past, the paper stresses the costs of the disinflation strategy, as measured by the central bank sizable foreign exchange intervention and the increase in Angola's external liabilities that unfolded in the process. The paper also notes that non-oil fiscal deficits have remained very large. Looking to the future, the paper stresses the pressing need to reduce demand pressures stemming from sizable government spending on wages and salaries, goods and services, subsidies, and other current transfers to the economy. The prescribed fiscal consolidation effort is viewed as critical to curtail the non-oil fiscal deficit, reduce inflation expectations on a lasting basis, and avoid further foreign borrowing on commercial terms, including loans collateralized by future oil revenues.
This paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer price inflation in Angola
and Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the changes of the pass-through over time. Even
though the two countries share smilar dependence on oil exports, this paper reveals different
results. For Angola, the long-run exchange rate pass-through to prices is high, though it has
weakened in recent years reflecting the de-dollarization of the economy. In Nigeria, there is
no stable long-run relationship between the exchange rate and prices, and changes in the
exchange rate do not have a significant pass-through effect on inflation. However, the passthrough
effect on core inflation is significant.