The staff report for the Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility focuses on the Republic of Armenia’s economic environment and policy discussion. Financial sector reforms will focus on improving corporate governance, strengthening regulation and supervision, and deepening financial intermediation. Price developments should be monitored closely and monetary policy tightened further should inflation pressures increase. The authorities’ plan to subsidize the local gas supplier to limit gas tariff increases for end-users is cause for concern.
This paper presents a Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Republic of Armenia’s Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Armenia’s poverty and extreme poverty rates declined in 2006 to 26.5 percent and 4.1 percent of the population, respectively—results which surpassed PRSP-1 projections. Inequality also decreased to a rate below the PRSP-1 goal, as measured by a reduction in the Gini coefficient from 0.395 in 2004 to 0.369 in 2006. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies were instrumental in maintaining macroeconomic stability and contributing to poverty reduction.
This paper evaluates the Joint Staff Assessment of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Armenia, which builds on the strategy laid out in the Interim PRSP. It provides an extensive analysis on the causes of poverty and the challenges faced, the comprehensive strategy with short- and long-term perspectives, set of public actions, evaluation plans, costing of programs, and the financing scenario. It also reviews planning, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of the strategy.
The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) has been developed for eradicating poverty in Armenia. It analyzes the poverty situation of Armenia, and evaluates the methodology and methodological issues. It discusses the PRSP goals, main policy directions, solution to poverty, and the reduction of inequality. It assesses the social and economic strategies and governance. It reviews the employment issues and trends in the budget framework, and also analyzes the implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of the system.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) discusses Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Armenia, which focuses on the government’s commitment to equitable growth and sustained poverty reduction. It reports on the progress in addressing issues raised in the previous JSAN, and provides IMF staff's advice on key priorities for strengthening the PRSP process further. The second PRSP Progress Report provides strong evidence of rapid economic growth, a notable reduction in poverty, and a number of other accomplishments, particularly in fiscal policy and social service delivery.
The key findings of Republic of Armenia’s Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper are reviewed. Macroeconomic and fiscal framework has been completely revised, taking into account the 2007 outcomes, tendencies developed during 2008, and challenges, particularly the projected increase of consumption prices and the GDP deflator. The structure of the economy has been reconsidered, targeting a larger share of industry and service sectors, mostly owing to the reduction in construction.
The main drivers of economic growth in Armenia were the construction and service sectors. The global economic crisis resulted in a substantial change in the structure of the economy. The drastic decline in the volume of foreign financing prejudice the continuation of rapid economic growth in the medium term and point to the need for incentives for exports and diversification, as well as encouraging of high-quality job openings and high levels of productivity. Reforms are needed in the key sectors of agriculture and infrastructure.
This Joint Staff Advisory (JSA) Note examines the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Progress Report for Armenia. Overall, the Progress Report provides evidence of stronger-than-anticipated poverty reduction and economic performance, improvement in the labor market, and a number of other accomplishments, particularly in fiscal policy and social service delivery. The report also indicates that progress has been made on many issues raised in the previous JSA, including on improved monitoring and evaluation, participation, and aligning the budget process with the PRSP.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper describes that with the global downturn in 2007–2009, some of these achievements were partially reversed due to severe negative shocks to growth and changes in the composition of growth. While compared to peer countries, inequality in Armenia remains low; it has increased somewhat since 2009. Poverty has marginally declined after the global crisis, but unemployment remains high. Creating jobs, reducing poverty, and higher inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and implementing pro-poor policies. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness. Poverty declined during the 2000s, supported by high growth. Poverty rate decreased by one third and the extreme poverty declined by half during 2004–2008. In addition to strong growth which created many job opportunities, higher social expenditures played a key role in lowering poverty. Regional disparities of poverty levels remain very high. These disparities, however, are geographical and not across the urban/rural divide. Indeed, contrary to the common perception, poverty rates in urban and rural areas are almost the same.
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Armenia. Armenia’s economy performs strongly. All end-December 2006 quantitative and all but one structural performance criteria were observed. The main policy challenges are to broaden economic growth, raise tax revenues, and manage large foreign exchange inflows. Fiscal policy remains appropriate. Meeting the ambitious 2007 revenue target will require broadening the tax base and strengthening administration. The stance of monetary policy is appropriate.