The paper uses a simple analytical framework to estimate relationships between prices, money the exchange rate, and interest rates in Albania during 1993–97. The estimated parsimonious error correction model extends the findings of a growing literature on inflation and money demand in transition economies. The results suggest that, after the one-time effects of the 1997 crisis are taken into account, the long-run determinants of inflation and money demand remained unchanged. Strong financial policies since mid—1997 appear to have helped to restore conditions for low inflation and stable money demand.
The paper uses data from transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe to assess four questions: (i) Did the standard blueprint for stabilization work, and was it implemented? (ii) To what extent was normal macroeconomics impeded by solvency problems in banks, and how successful have been policies to improve incentives within banks? (iii) Could financial markets and other infrastructure for monetary policy have been developed more quickly? (iv) How should transition economies respond to the monetary inflows that typically accompany success? The paper concludes by evaluating the changing advice offered by external agencies during the 1990s.