This paper examines Afghanistan’s Sixth Review under the arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. The growth of currency in circulation has been carefully managed to support the decline in inflation from double-digit levels in 2008. Reserve money, however, has been volatile, primarily because of unexpected changes in coalition forces’ deposits. Money demand remained strong as evidenced by the decline in inflation and a nominal appreciation of the Afghani. The authorities have also been implementing a short-term revenue action plan with measures aimed at limiting corruption.
This paper focuses on Afghanistan’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program. The authorities have made further progress in rebuilding institutions and implementing sound economic policies. They have maintained their commitment to fiscal discipline. Real GDP growth has been relatively strong, albeit from a very low base, and has slowed over the past 18 months, owing primarily to the negative impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production. Growth remained strong in the other sectors, especially in construction and services.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted in Beirut, Lebanon, during March 12–22, 2018, for the Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB).1 The mission took place at the request of the DAB and with strong support of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. This mission is part of the Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) work program. The main objectives of the mission were to assist the DAB in improving the quality of the balance of payments and International Investment Position (IIP) by suggesting improvements in the statistical techniques and promoting the use of adequate source data. The main focus of the mission was on filling data gaps by developing new estimation methods based on existing and new data sources.
This paper describes a computer program with which one can build macroeconomic models. It is possible to specify up to eighteen behavioral equations, each with between five and eleven independent variables. For certain variables, the user can decide whether they will be endogenous or exogenous. Many policy simulations dealing with adjustment and growth issues can be performed with this program by varying any of the exogenous variables, and these experiments can be repeated for different model specifications. This paper describes a number of experiments with a model of an open economy where output and prices are endogenous.