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Miss Rita Mesias

Abstract

This Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide (Guide) has been prepared to assist economies in participating in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The CDIS is being conducted under the auspices of the Statistics Department of the IMF across a wide range of economies. The survey is conducted simultaneously by all participating economies; uses consistent definitions; and encourages best practices in collecting, compiling, and disseminating data on direct investment positions. The CDIS is thus an important tool in capturing world totals and the geographic distribution of direct investment positions, thereby contributing to important new understandings of the extent of globalization, and improving the overall quality of direct investment data worldwide. As of the writing of this updated Guide, more than 100 economies participate in the CDIS.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho and Mr. Rudolfs Bems
Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.
Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders
While the underlying methodologies continue to be widely debated and refined, there is little consensus on how to assess the equilibrium exchange rate of economies dominated by production of finite natural resources such as the oil economies of the Middle East. In part this is due to the importance of intertemporal aspects (as the real exchange rate may affect the optimal/equitable rate of transformation of finite resource wealth into financial assets), as well as risk considerations given the relatively high volatility of commodity prices. The paper illustrates some important peculiarities of the exchange rate assessment for such natural resource producers by working through a simple two-period model that captures certain key aspects of many resource economies.
Mr. Alun H. Thomas, Mr. Jun I Kim, and Aqib Aslam
This paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

This paper highlights that the current round of trade talks under the auspices of the World Trade Organization aims at better integrating developing countries—especially the small and poor ones—into the global trading system. For that reason, it was named the Doha Development Agenda when it was launched in late 2001. However, more than three years on, little progress has been made. It took a late July 2004 accord outlining “negotiating frameworks” in agriculture and industrial products just to keep the talks afloat.

International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, Review Department, International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept., and International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
"The changing contours of the global economy and the rapid transformation of the global financial safety net (GFSN) have strengthened the case for more structured collaboration between its different layers, particularly with Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs). RFAs have become an important part of the GFSN, and their roles have also evolved. Over recent years, their coverage has expanded to encompass many major advanced and emerging market economies; the resources under their control has risen. Moreover, since the global financial crisis, some RFAs have become key financing counterparts of Fund-supported programs. These developments have heightened the importance of close and timely collaboration with RFAs. However, there is currently no formal framework for an exchange of Board documents with RFAs, leaving a gap in Fund collaboration with RFAs. The Fund has a long-standing practice for collaborating and sharing documents with other international organizations, primarily under the Transmittal Policy that was amended most recently in November 2017. However, some RFAs do not meet the criteria under the Transmittal Policy and, in view of the unique and heterogeneous institutional and governance structures of RFAs, there is a need for a dedicated and coherent framework that facilitates the exchange of documents on both routine and non-routine bases. This paper proposes a policy framework for the exchange of documents between the Fund and RFAs. The proposed framework establishes a set of criteria to be met by RFAs for document exchange—based on the consideration of whether a certain entity shares common operational interest with the Fund, and provides satisfactory confidentiality and reciprocity assurances. Under routine document sharing arrangements with RFAs, Board documents would be provided after Board consideration. In cases of UFR arrangements involving current or potential co-financing by the Fund and RFAs, or Policy Coordination Instruments (PCIs) and Policy Support Instruments (PSIs) that may help unlock RFA financing to the country, staff proposes that relevant Board documents be exchanged prior to their consideration by the Board, following notification to the Board. The proposed framework builds on the principles of the Transmittal Policy and does not impact the transmittal of documents to international organizations currently governed by the Transmittal Policy."
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

World Economic Outlook and International Capital Markets: Interim Assessment, December 1998 ($36.00; academic rate: $25.00)

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The global crisis is now affecting the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia region, and economic and financial vulnerabilities are rising. In the Middle East and North Africa, good economic fundamentals, appropriate policy responses, and sizable currency reserves are helping mitigate the impact of the shock. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, lower commodity prices and adverse economic developments in Russia have hit hard. The report notes that countries should prepare for the contingency of a prolonged global slowdown by supporting domestic demand for a longer period and strengthening financial systems further. In some countries with rising unemployment, it will be important to target government resources and policies on protecting the poor; in others, increased donor support will be necessary to maintain needed economic development.