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Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh
This paper estimates the size of the underground economy in Pakistan and analyzes its impact on Government fiscal position and the allocation of economic resources in the national economy. The results suggest that there is a mutual dependency between the size of the underground economy and fiscal deficits, and show a leakage from the national income-expenditure cycle in the formal economy to the underground economy via private investments. Finally, the paper proposes long- and short-run policies to reduce the size of the underground economy.
Mr. Julian T Chow
Guyana’s residential real estate prices have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015. In line with the growing demand for housing, commercial banks’ housing loans have increased, prompting higher household debt. This paper presents two analyses which suggest that housing prices in Georgetown and banks’ lending to the housing sector appear to be in their early stages of growth. However, given the data limitations and caveats that underpin the analyses, the findings could also indicate early signals of possible risks. Further data collection would support surveillance and deeper studies. At the same time, enhancing prudential measures would help safeguard financial and macroeconomic stability. These include strengthening the monitoring of the housing market, bank lending practices and household debt, as well as fortifying the macroprudential framework, including with more effective toolkits for early intervention.