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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Prepared by staff from the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (in consultation with other departments): The authors of this chapter are Anna Ilyina (Division Chief), Evan Papageorgiou (Deputy Division Chief), Sergei Antoshin, Yingyuan Chen, Fabio Cortes, Rohit Goel, Phakawa Jeasakul, Sanjay Hazarika, Kelly Eckhold, Frank Hespeler, Henry Hoyle, Piyusha Khot, Sheheryar Malik, Thomas Piontek, Akihiko Yokoyama, and Xingmi Zheng, under the guidance of Fabio Natalucci (Deputy Director). Magally Bernal and Andre Vasquez were responsible for word processing and the production of this report.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Prepared by staff from the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (in consultation with other departments): The authors of this chapter are Dimitris Drakopoulos, Rohit Goel, Evan Papageorgiou (team leader), Dmitri Petrov, Patrick Schneider, Can Sever, and Jef Williams, under the guidance of Fabio Natalucci and Anna Ilyina. Magally Bernal and Andre Vasquez were responsible for word processing and the production of this report.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Andrea Deghi, Ken Zhi Gan, Tom Piontek, Dulani Seneviratne, Tomohiro Tsuruga, and Jérôme Vandenbussche (team leader), with contributions from Germán Villegas Bauer, under the guidance of Fabio Natalucci and Mahvash Qureshi. Jeremy Stein served as an expert advisor.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Prepared by staff from the Monetary and Capital Markets Department (in consultation with other departments): The authors of this chapter are John Caparusso and Claudio Raddatz (lead authors), Yingyuan Chen, Dan Cheng, Xiaodan Ding, Ibrahim Ergen, Marco Gross, Ivo Krznar, Dimitrios Laliotis, Fabian Lipinsky, Pavel Lukyantsau, Elizabeth Mahoney, Nicola Pierri, and Tomohiro Tsuruga with contributions from Hee Kyong Chon, Caio Ferreira, Alejandro Lopez, and Luc Riedweg under the guidance of Fabio Natalucci (Deputy Director). Magally Bernal was responsible for word processing and the production of this report.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Zhi Ken Gan, Pierpaolo Grippa, Pierre Guérin, Oksana Khadarina, Samuel Mann, Felix Suntheim (team lead), and Yizhi Xu, with contributions from Alan Feng, Germán Villegas Bauer, and Julia Xueliang Wang, under the guidance of Fabio Natalucci, Mahvash Qureshi, and Jérôme Vandenbussche. Harrison Hong served as an expert advisor.

Ljubica Dordevic, Caio Ferreira, Moses Kitonga, and Katharine Seal
The paper employs two complementary strategies. First, it is pursues textual analysis (text mining) of the assessment reports to identify successes and challenges the authorities are facing. Second, it analyzes the grades in the Basel Core Principles assessments, including their evolution and association with bank fragility.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper, prepared by a working group of IMF staff, provides a preliminary assessment of the risks and potential impact to the global economy and financial system from a possible avian flu pandemic, discusses the IMF’s role in helping member countries prepare their economic and financial systems for such a pandemic, and summarizes common elements of business continuity planning in the financial sector

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

Near-term global financial stability risks have been contained as an unprecedented policy response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has helped avert a financial meltdown and maintain the flow of credit to the economy. For the first time, many emerging market central banks have launched asset purchase programs to support the smooth functioning of financial markets and the overall economy. But the outlook remains highly uncertain, and vulnerabilities are rising, representing potential headwinds to recovery. The report presents an assessment of the real-financial disconnect, as well as forward-looking analysis of nonfinancial firms, banks, and emerging market capital flows. After the outbreak, firms’ cash flows were adversely affected as economic activity declined sharply. More vulnerable firms—those with weaker solvency and liquidity positions and smaller size—experienced greater financial stress than their peers in the early stages of the crisis. As the crisis unfolds, corporate liquidity pressures may morph into insolvencies, especially if the recovery is delayed. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are more vulnerable than large firms with access to capital markets. Although the global banking system is well capitalized, some banking systems may experience capital shortfalls in an adverse scenario, even with the currently deployed policy measures. The report also assesses the pandemic’s impact on firms’ environmental performance to gauge the extent to which the crisis may result in a reversal of the gains posted in recent years.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

1. There is growing concern about the possibility of an avian flu pandemic (AFP) and its implications for humans and the global economic and financial system. While such pandemics are not new—the last one occurred in 1968—health experts are particularly concerned about the current strain of the virus (H5N1). This strain has spread quickly in bird populations, caused high mortality among poultry, and occasionally infected humans, with about half of the cases proving fatal. But human infections remain rare as the strain has not been spreading easily from birds to humans, nor has it been spreading from person to person.2

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

5. If the pandemic is severe, the economic impact is likely to be significant, though predictions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. The severity of a pandemic will, inter alia, depend on its attack and fatality rates,4 its duration, and the behavior and preparedness of households and firms, as well as the capacity and preparedness of health care systems. A pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish flu could result in high levels of illness and death, and a sharp but only temporary decline in global economic activity (Box 1). Economic disruptions on the supply side would come directly from high absenteeism, as people may be asked to stay at home, or may choose to do so to care for sick relatives or because of fear of being exposed themselves. There may also be disruptions to transportation, trade, payment systems, and major utilities, exposing some financially vulnerable enterprises to the risk of bankruptcy. Moreover, demand could contract sharply, with consumer spending falling and investment being put on hold. Financial repercussions could further exacerbate the economic impact.