This paper compares experiences with banking crises in seven countries in order to analyze the factors governing the crises and the effectiveness of measures to deal with the problems. The linkages between deregulation of the financial sector, and financial crises are examined. The portfolio shifts during crisis periods are studied. The major lesson from these experiences is that the regulatory and portfolio weaknesses in the financial sector have strong effects on the macroeconomy and can exacerbate the costs of macroeconomic adjustment. Structural measures to correct these weaknesses are important for the effectiveness of adjustment policies.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
On July 12, the IMF’s Executive Board approved the eighth review of Turkey’s economic program supported by the three-year Stand-By Arrangement. The Board’s decision will enable Turkey to draw SDR 1.2 billion (about $1.5 billion) immediately from the IMF. Following is the edited text of IMF News Brief 01/57. The full text is available on the IMF’s website (www.imf.org).
The Republic of Estonia’s 2007 Article IV Consultation reports that surging domestic demand has widened the external current account deficit and pushed the economy against capacity constraints. Wage increases have begun to erode competitiveness and kept inflation above the Maastricht threshold for euro adoption. There are signs of an incipient slowdown, but a resurgence of demand and an eventual hard landing, with growth stagnating, cannot be ruled out. A strong fiscal stance is needed to subdue wage and income expectations and improve the odds of a soft landing.
The government has begun implementing an ambitious program of banking sector and enterprise reform in 1999. A key aspect of this program is the restructuring and privatization of three large state-owned banks. As a by-product of the bank restructuring, the bad assets carved out from the banks will be worked out, together with tax and social security arrears. The Slovak authorities have embarked on an ambitious task to deal with inherited weaknesses of the banking system. Now the challenge is to focus on the institutional improvement in banking supervision.
This 2005 Article IV Consultation for the Netherlands Antilles’ reports that economic growth has been feeble so far in this decade, in the midst of economic policy drift. Growth has been constrained by still inflexible labor markets, widespread state ownership and interference in commercial activities, and insufficient investment in infrastructure and human capital. At the same time, free migration to the Netherlands has kept wages high. Persistent budget deficits and a large and growing public debt have also remained unaddressed.
This paper examines the relationship between increases in the money supply and inflation in four developing countries. It is first shown that the growth in the money supply and inflation are linked in a two-way relationship in these countries, and then a dynamic model is designed that explicitly introduces the link in the form of reactions of the government fiscal deficit to inflation. The basic hypothesis is that an increase in the rate of inflation, whatever its cause, increases the real value of the fiscal deficit, because money expenditures keep pace with inflation while nominal revenues tend to lag. The model is estimated for the four countries, and the empirical results tend to validate the hypothesis. It is found that fiscal deficits play an important role in the inflation process, and that increases in these deficits are largely owing to the differences in the lags of government expenditures and revenues. Two basic policy conclusions emerge from this study: first, the tendency of government budgetary positions to be automatically destabilizing in developing economies underscores the need for an actively anti-inflation fiscal policy in these economies. Second, developing countries should attach priority to tax reforms designed to eliminate revenue lags.
In March 2009, the Fund established a new Framework Administered Account to administer external financial resources for selected Fund activities (the “SFA Instrument”). The financing of activities under the terms of the SFA Instrument is implemented through the establishment and operation of a subaccount within the SFA. This paper requests Executive Board approval to establish the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Center (CARTAC) subaccount (the “Subaccount”) under the terms of the SFA Instrument.
The Republic of Slovenia, being the most successful transition economy in Central and Eastern Europe, has achieved significant economic convergence with the European Union, and has built up an impressive record of sustained, broad-based growth, reflecting strong competitiveness and investment. However, Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain strong monetary and fiscal policies, and accelerate structural reforms. They commended the comprehensive action plan prepared by the authorities to strengthen prudential standards, improve liquidity management, and deepen the money market.
Thanks to sound macroeconomic management and an overall favorable business climate, income convergence with Western Europe is advancing. In 2015, sharply contracting exports to Russia temporarily dragged down growth. Ensuring good economic progress over the medium term requires continued productivity improvements, safeguarding competitiveness in a tightening labor market, and beginning to address high income inequality.