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Gianni De Nicoló,, Sami Geadah,, and Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov

This paper describes why the international community needs to act now to stand a chance of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The paper gives example of Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, with an estimated per capita income of about US$100. According to the World Bank, recent national household surveys find 44 percent of the people in Ethiopia cannot meet basic needs. The paper discusses that Ethiopia in many ways epitomizes why the MDGs are important and why more money is needed to achieve them.

International Monetary Fund

The economy of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia suffered a setback owing to the Kosovo crisis. The impact of the crisis, however, was less severe. Inflation remained low, the balance-of-payments position and the fiscal situation improved, and indicators of external vulnerability remained satisfactory. The National Bank of Macedonia faced contrasting challenges in the conduct of monetary policy. The pace of structural reforms picked up and a value-added tax was introduced. However, structural weaknesses in the financial system have prevented a more vigorous economic recovery.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

The post-crisis economic recovery has been solid and broad-based due to accommodative policies, low commodity prices and large infrastructure and foreign investment. However, a prolonged period of domestic political uncertainties is beginning to impact confidence and the country's EU accession prospects. Growth should pick up in the medium term contingent on the return of political stability following parliamentary elections in December.

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper assesses Macedonia’s public debt markets and presents recommendations for their further development. Macedonia’s domestic debt market is in the early stages of development and is small by regional standards. The paper also analyzes the main causes of euroization in Macedonia. It discusses the nature of monetary policy in Macedonia where despite an exchange rate peg owing to imperfect capital mobility, there exists some degree of autonomy in the conduct of monetary policy in the short term.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund
After several years of transition, major weaknesses in the banking and enterprise sectors remain the root cause of low growth. A large share of nonperforming assets in the portfolio of large banks, stemming from losses in the enterprise sector, has been a key impediment to financial sector development. The banking system has been crippled with low levels of intermediation, high cost of capital, severe lack of financial discipline, and poor allocation of credit. Reforms aimed at strengthening lending practices, encouraging foreign bank participation, improving bank supervision and, above all, a consolidation process that breaks away from the past are helping pave the path to economic recovery.
Maral Shamloo
In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

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