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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The MENAP oil exporters were directly affected by the global financial crisis through a sharp drop in oil prices, a contraction in the global economy, and a sudden drying up of capital inflows. Although activity in the oil sector will likely drop by 3.5 percent in 2009, strong countercyclical macroeconomic policies have helped mitigate the impact of the crisis on the non-oil sector, which is projected to grow by 3.2 percent. Looking ahead, higher oil prices, a revival of global demand, and continued government spending will provide the basis for stronger growth in 2010. The crisis also revealed some vulnerabilities in the banking and corporate sectors, requiring countries to undertake exceptional stabilization measures and highlighting the need to strengthen financial sector supervision, enhance corporate governance, foster resource mobilization, and diversify risks.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The MENAP oil importers are a diverse group, encompassing both emerging and low-income economies. Many have seen significant slowdowns in the past year but, overall, these countries have escaped the substantial contractions experienced in other parts of the world. Supportive policy responses, a low degree of integration with international capital markets and manufacturing supply chains, and banking systems that had little exposure to structured financial products have contained the fallout. While the slowdown has been modest, this group of countries is also likely to experience a slow recovery. Limited external financing, little space for fiscal stimulus, a real appreciation of most domestic currencies, sluggish receipts from tourism and remittances, and higher energy prices will all continue to be a drag on growth for some time.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

For many countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, the impact of the global economic downturn has been severe, but prospects for energy importers and exporters differ starkly. For energy importers, the economic outlook remains challenging and recovery in 2010 is likely to be gradual, primarily because of their linkages with Russia. In particular, remittances have fallen sharply, hurting low-income households. Fiscal policy should remain accommodative in 2010 to support growth and mitigate the impact on the poor, but continued concessional donor support will be needed to prevent a buildup of unsustainable debt levels.

KHOSROW DOROODIAN

IN A RECENT ARTICLE in Staff Papers Mohsin Khan and Malcolm Knight investigated the impact of internal factors (the fiscal deficit and the appreciation in real effective exchange rates) and external factors (the deterioration in the terms of trade, the slowdown of economic growth in developing nations, and the increase in foreign real interest rates) on the evolution of the current account balances of non-oil developing countries during the 1970s.1 Their results, from regression analysis for a cross-section time-series sample of 32 non-oil developing countries from 1973 through 1980, indicate that both external and internal factors were important in affecting the current account balances of the countries under review.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights the sources of payments problems in less developed countries. Growth in the industrial countries has a direct impact on the current account of the developing countries through its influence on both the prices and volumes of their exports. An increase in the real effective exchange rate is clearly a fundamental determinant of a deteriorating current account since, other things being equal, it tends to raise domestic demand for imports and to reduce foreign demand for exports.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that the fight against worldwide inflation was the main theme of the Finance Ministers and central bank Governors from 138 member countries that participated in the 1979 Annual Meeting of the IMF’s Board of Governors in Belgrade in October 1979. Unlike the agenda for the 1978 Meeting, which contained a number of single issues, such as quota increases and special drawing rights allocations, requiring specific decisions and action, the 1979 Meeting was devoted principally to a wide-ranging discussion of the world’s economic problems.
Suhas Ketkar and Dilip Ratha

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

Paulo Neuhaus

This paper highlights that on September 29, 1982, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) began to offer discount notes under a short-term borrowing program approved by its Board last July. The Bank anticipates that in fiscal year 1983, it will have outstanding up to US$1.5 billion in short-term discount notes and that it will borrow about US$8 billion in the fixed-rate medium to long-term markets. The initial offering of notes is being made in the U.S. domestic markets.

International Monetary Fund

Zambia’s strong performance continues under the Extended Credit Facility-supported program. All but one of the quantitative performance criteria were met, and structural reforms are progressing. In the aftermath of exchange rate and copper price fluctuations, the financial sector’s recovery has been slow. The main macroeconomic policy challenge in future is to increase growth further by creating fiscal space for expenditures that would enhance economic diversification and reduce Zambia’s dependence on copper exports. Monetary policy appropriately targets a further reduction in underlying inflation.

International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.