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Marvin M. Wofsey and Paul M. Dickie

This paper describes modernization of ports in Peru. With the sea so predominant in the life of the country, modern ports are vital in Peru. A program has been undertaken to abandon the numerous obsolete ports served by barges and to establish a few strategically situated ports—modern, mechanized, and with terminals having direct mooring facilities. At the same time, Callao, the country’s chief port, has been improved, and specially equipped ports are being planned for fishing products.

International Monetary Fund
The Iranian economy recovered on the strength of international oil prices, strong rebound in agricultural sector, and rapid credit expansion. Inflation was contained while fiscal and external positions improved. Key policy priorities are to maintain short-term macroeconomic stability, transition to a market-based economy to foster growth, and support job creation; and strengthen the financial sector. The economic reform strategy, anchored in privatization, reduction of the role of government, and market-based prices for energy and agricultural goods should help achieve higher growth and create jobs.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Iran is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2017/18. In the first half of 2017/18, recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and a recovery in construction and services activity. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in the first half of 2017/18, but remained particularly high for youth and women. Inflation averaged 9.9 percent during the first 11 months of 2017/18 aided by moderation in food prices and stable administered prices. Real GDP growth is expected to ease to 4 percent in 2018/19 and is forecast to average 4.5 percent over the medium-term.
Mr. Paul Cashin, Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes, and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
Mr. Joshua Charap, Mr. Arthur Ribeiro da Silva, and Mr. Pedro C Rodriguez
The economic and environmental implications of energy subsidies have received renewed attention from policymakers and economists in recent years. Nevertheless there remains significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the impact of energy subsidies on energy consumption. In this paper we analyze a panel of cross-country data to explore the responsiveness of energy consumption to changes in energy prices and the implications of our findings for the debate on energy subsidy reform. Our findings indicate a long-term price elasticity of energy demand between -0.3 and -0.5, which suggests that countries can reap significant long-term benefits from the reform of energy subsidies. Our findings also indicate that short-term gains from subsidy reform are likely to be much smaller, which suggests the need for either a gradual approach to subsidy reform or for more generous safety nets in the short term.
Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes and Mr. Mehdi Raissi
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal appreciation of the rial and the lack of effective sterilization instruments. The growing discontent with inflation, however, has compelled policymakers to focus on this issue, bringing it to the forefront of the policy agenda.

International Monetary Fund

This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that with high oil prices and a significant policy stimulus, the Iranian economy continued to grow strongly in 2005–06. Real GDP growth is estimated at 5½ percent. Oil GDP growth was modest owing to capacity constraints, while non-oil GDP growth was broad based, reaching 6 percent. The tensions associated with the nuclear issue, however, had some adverse effects on private investment. With energy prices projected to remain high and external demand continuing to support non-oil exports, Iran’s near-term growth prospects look favorable.

International Monetary Fund

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s 2008 Article IV Consultation underlies that the economy is showing signs of overheating owing to high oil prices and a significant policy stimulus. IMF policy advice has focused on measures to reduce inflation and structural reforms aimed at stimulating growth and employment creation. Consistent with IMF recommendations, in 2007/08, the authorities reduced the non-oil fiscal deficit, contained energy subsidies, improved revenue administration, and intensified their efforts to bring banking supervision closer to international standards.

International Monetary Fund

The Iranian economy recovered on the strength of international oil prices, strong rebound in agricultural sector, and rapid credit expansion. Inflation was contained while fiscal and external positions improved. Key policy priorities are to maintain short-term macroeconomic stability, transition to a market-based economy to foster growth, and support job creation; and strengthen the financial sector. The economic reform strategy, anchored in privatization, reduction of the role of government, and market-based prices for energy and agricultural goods should help achieve higher growth and create jobs.