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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The global economy entered 2013 with receding tail risks as the U.S. fiscal cliff and an escalation of the euro area crisis had been averted. In the United States, activity, balance sheets, house prices, and credit were improving while major emerging economies were also seeing strengthening activity. In the euro area, however, economic prospects remain fragile, with weak activity extending to core countries. Meanwhile, financial conditions are ameliorating across the board, with equity prices rising to multiyear highs, volatilities declining, and credit spreads compressing (Figure 1.1). While downside risks remain significant, risks are now more balanced than they were at the time of the October 2012 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update (IMF, 2012d).

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Sustained rapid growth, macroeconomic stability, and improvements in living standards are some of the remarkable achievements of Asian economies over the past decade. Nevertheless, important challenges remain, as countries strive to maintain robust long-term growth, reduce income inequality, and fight poverty. Against this background, this chapter assesses whether fiscal policy has contributed to lower output volatility in Asia in the last decade and discusses how it can help address the critical challenges ahead.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Slower growth in China, India, and Vietnam; prospects of persistently low growth in advanced economies; imminent demographic aging across large parts of East Asia—all have raised concerns in recent years about risks of a sustained growth slowdown in emerging Asia. In middle-income economies, fears of a “middle-income trap” have been growing.1 And indeed, as highlighted in Chapter 1, although Asia’s potential growth remains higher than that of other regions, various estimation techniques point to a reduction in trend growth since the 2008 global financial crisis.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

This chapter was prepared by a team led by Papa N’Diaye, coordinated by Nkunde Mwase and composed of Seung Mo Choi, Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Cleary Haines, Andresa Lagerborg, Miguel Pereira Mendes, and Torsten Wezel.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient, supported by relatively easy financial conditions and robust labor markets. A small and gradual pick-up in growth to over 5¾ percent is projected in the course of 2013. Risks to the outlook from within the region, such as rising financial imbalances and asset prices in some economies, are coming clearer into focus. Although Asia’s banking and corporate sectors have solid buffers, monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to shifting risks, and macroprudential measures will also have a role to play. In many Asian economies, some fiscal consolidation could also rebuild the space needed to respond to future shocks and preempt potential overheating pressures from capital inflows. In particular, there is a growing need to make tax and spending policies more efficient. To sustain high growth rates and alleviate the “middle-income trap” across Emerging Asia, the policy agenda will vary by jurisdiction but will also often include strengthening infrastructure investment and reforming goods and labor markets.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to 5.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020 (0.4 and 0.3 percentage point lower than projected last April, respectively). A marked deceleration in merchandise trade and investment, driven by distortionary trade measures and an uncertain policy environment, is weighing on activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.