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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The staff has reviewed the medium-term scenarios presented in the April 1985 World Economic Outlook to ascertain the continuing validity of the principal conclusions. A detailed country-by-country re-evaluation of the estimates has not been undertaken; rather, the approach was to adjust the earlier results for certain changes in the underlying environment and to investigate the sensitivity of the scenario outcomes to changes in the basic assumptions.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

En la edición de abril de 2011 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial se evalúa el panorama del crecimiento económico en el mundo en el contexto de los desafíos de política económica que aún deben abordarse y de los nuevos desafíos que se perfilan. La recuperación está cobrando fuerza, pero el desempleo se mantiene en un alto nivel en las economías avanzadas, y en las economías de mercados emergentes están surgiendo nuevos riesgos macroeconómicos. En las economías avanzadas, la demanda privada está sustituyendo a la pública, lo cual reduce la preocupación de que al disminuir el respaldo de política fiscal la economía vuelva a caer en recesión. Las condiciones financieras siguen mejorando, aunque todavía son excesivamente frágiles. En muchas economías de mercados emergentes, la demanda es vigorosa y el sobrecalentamiento es un creciente motivo de preocupación. El alza de precios de los alimentos y materias primas plantea nuevos riesgos para la economía mundial. Dos capítulos abordan de manera directa estos nuevos desafíos. El capítulo 3 analiza el impacto potencial de la escasez de petróleo en el crecimiento mundial y el capítulo 4 explora la posible respuesta de los flujos de capitales internacionales ante los cambios en el entorno macroeconómico internacional.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

L'édition d'avril 2011 des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale examine les perspectives de croissance économique compte tenu des problèmes de politique macroéconomique qui restent à régler et des nouvelles difficultés qui se font jour. La reprise monte en régime, mais le chômage reste élevé dans les pays avancés, et de nouveaux risques macroéconomiques apparaissent dans les pays émergents. Dans les pays avancés, le transfert de la demande publique vers la demande privée se poursuit, et il est donc moins à craindre que le retrait de l’impulsion budgétaire provoque une double récession. La situation financière continue de s’améliorer, bien qu’elle reste exceptionnellement fragile. Dans beaucoup de pays émergents, la demande est robuste et la surchauffe constitue une préoccupation croissante. La hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires et des matières premières présente de nouveaux risques pour l'économie mondiale. Deux chapitres abordent directement ces nouvelles difficultés : Le chapitre 3 aborde les incidences potentielles de la pénurie de pétrole pour la croissance mondiale, tandis que le chapitre 4 s'intéresse à l'évolution possible des flux de capitaux internationaux face à l'évolution de l'environnement macroéconomique mondial.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The review just presented of short-term and medium-term prospects suggests that, despite the slowdown in activity in the first half of 1985, the overall outlook is not greatly changed from that envisaged in the April World Economic Outlook. In general, therefore, the stance of policies recommended at that time remains appropriate. In the first part of this section, the main features of these policies, and the interactions among them are recalled.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This paper highlights that the performance of the world economy in 1984 turned out to be considerably better than had been expected at the beginning of the year. Output grew robustly in the industrial countries, especially in the United States and Japan; inflation continued to decline; and developing countries saw a noteworthy improvement both in their balance-of-payments position and in their domestic growth performance. Fears that the debt situation might deteriorate did not materialize.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, employment, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Central bankers, economists, Financial institutions, business leaders, governments, think tanks, and researchers eagerly await this unique investigation of what’s happening and what’s ahead.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

There have been increasing signs of hesitancy in the pace of world economic expansion in the first half of 1985. In the United States, output growth declined to an average of 1 percent (at an annual rate) in the first two quarters of the year from 5.7 percent during 1984, and in other industrial countries the pace of recovery was also generally subdued. Commodity prices fell significantly, thus weakening growth prospects in many developing countries. These developments have not led to major revisions in the projections for industrial countries for the remainder of 1985 and 1986, in part because some of the factors affecting economic performance in the first half of 1985 are expected to be temporary. In the developing world, however, growth in 1985 and 1986 is now expected to be somewhat less than was foreseen six months ago. Moreover, the recent weakness of economic activity serves to underscore the downside risks in the staffs projections and to focus attention on the policy issues that would arise if growth were to slow more significantly.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

This report presents revised projections resulting from a country-by-country updating of the estimates published in the April 1985 World Economic Outlook. The projections are based on the usual technical assumptions of (1) unchanged nominal exchange rates among industrial countries; (2) unchanged oil prices in nominal U.S. dollar terms; and (3) “constant policies.” The report also stresses the interactions of policies and developments among IMF members. These interactions are particularly evident from the way in which differences in economic policy mix have affected domestic savings and investment positions and hence interest rate differentials and trade flows.