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Ms. Annalisa Fedelino, Anna Ivanova, and Mr. Mark A Horton

This technical note focuses on computing cyclically adjusted balances and automatic stabilizers. The note provides guidance on how to decompose overall fiscal balances into cyclical and cyclically adjusted components, and how to interpret automatic fiscal stabilizers. These indicators are commonly used to assess how fiscal policy responds to macroeconomic conditions. Various approaches to cyclical adjustment and estimation of the automatic stabilizers are possible. This note focuses on the approach used by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department in the paper on the State of Public Finances and in the Fiscal Monitor.

Ms. Annalisa Fedelino, Mr. Mark A Horton, and Anna Ivanova
This technical note focuses on computing cyclically adjusted balances and automatic stabilizers. The note provides guidance on how to decompose overall fiscal balances into cyclical and cyclically adjusted components, and how to interpret automatic fiscal stabilizers. These indicators are commonly used to assess how fiscal policy responds to macroeconomic conditions. Various approaches to cyclical adjustment and estimation of the automatic stabilizers are possible. This note focuses on the approach used by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department in the paper on the State of Public Finances and in the Fiscal Monitor.
Nicoletta Batini, Luc Eyraud, Lorenzo Forni, and Anke Weber
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Fabian Bornhorst, Ms. Annalisa Fedelino, Jan Gottschalk, and Miss Gabriela Dobrescu
Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.
Sophia Chen, Mrs. Paola Ganum, and Mr. Pau Rabanal
e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts. The toolkit draws upon empirical regularities on real sector and financial sector outcomes for 182 economies from 1980 to 2015. We show that credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance, in particular when credit growth is unusually high or low. However, the relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak. These results hold for different country groups, including advanced economies, emerging markets and low-income countries. Combining credit growth with other variables such as house prices and the output gap helps to understand real sector outcomes. But including the financial account balance does not make a difference.