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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Asia and Pacific’s position as the growth engine of the world economy has intensified in recent years. While in 2000 the region accounted for less than 30 percent of world output, by 2014 this contribution had risen to almost 40 percent. Moreover, Asia and Pacific accounted for nearly two-thirds of global growth last year. Developments in the region are therefore central to the global economic outlook and for formulating policies around the world. What, then, are Asia and Pacific’s near- and medium-term growth prospects? Will substantial intraregional differences in growth persist? How have vulnerabilities within the region evolved? What macroeconomic, financial, and structural policies are appropriate to ensure a dynamic and resilient Asia and Pacific economic region? This chapter addresses these questions, beginning from the broader perspective of the global backdrop and associated risks, as reflected in the April 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Intensified conflicts in Iraq and Libya have led to a downward revision in the 2014 growth projections for the MENAP oil exporters by ¾ of a percentage point compared with the May 2014 Regional Economic Outlook Update. At 2½ percent, growth in the oil exporters is expected to edge up only slightly from last year, supported by recovery in Iran and continued solid growth in the GCC countries. Growth is expected to strengthen to about 4 percent next year, assuming that security improves and oil production in non-GCC countries, particularly Libya and Iraq, recovers. In the current security environment, these projections are subject to heightened uncertainty. Declining oil revenues and rising government spending are weakening fiscal positions. Consolidation would build resilience against oil price declines and help countries share their oil wealth with future generations. Some non-GCC countries face the pressing need to draw on their savings over the near term to meet essential expenditures. Reducing the dependence of sustained economic growth on rising oil prices requires structural reforms that promote economic diversification and inclusive growth.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy looks set to register another year of solid growth in 2015 (4½ percent). Still, this expansion will be at the lower end of the range by recent standards, and reflects the adverse shock that has hit some of the region’s largest economies due to the sharp decline in oil prices (Figure 1.1). The impact of this shock is set to be quite heterogeneous: for the eight oil exporters, it will pose a formidable challenge and, with limited buffers, will require them to undertake significant fiscal adjustment. For most other countries, lower oil prices represent a favorable development which, however, will be partly offset in some cases by lower prices of other commodities that they export.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery from the crisis-induced slowdown is well underway, with growth now back fairly close to the high levels of the mid-2000s. The region’s output expanded by 5 percent in 2010 and is projected to grow by some 5½ percent in 2011, in line with last October’s projections (Table 1.1). Reflecting recent sharp increases in food and fuel prices, inflation is set to be higher this year while remaining in single digits. Higher commodity prices—and that for oil, in particular—will be a boon for several countries while adversely affecting many others. And, overall, they should help narrow the region-wide fiscal and current account deficits, the latter enabling an increase in international reserves. In all, the aggregate picture is one of a strong recovery from the 2009 downturn.