This paper assesses the Republic of Armenia’s 2001 Article IV Consultation and a Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The economic situation in Armenia has improved since mid-2000 following the deterioration in late 1999 and early 2000. Real GDP began to recover in the second quarter and increased by 6 percent for 2000 as a whole. The authorities have made progress in reforming the energy sector, which remains a considerable financial drain on the budget and the rest of the economy.
This paper examines Armenia’s Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Extension of the Arrangement. Performance under the PRGF-supported program since mid-2003 has been satisfactory: the authorities met all quantitative targets and implemented most of the envisaged structural measures. Tax revenue collection was somewhat disappointing in 2003, although it has improved in early 2004. Future growth in Armenia will increasingly depend on the ability of the banking system to mobilize and allocate domestic savings.
This paper focuses on the Republic of Armenia’s 2002 Article IV Consultation, First and Second Reviews Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and a Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria. The PRGF-supported program approved in 2001 focuses on revenue mobilization, the clearance of government arrears, and a decline in the deficit of the energy sector. Performance during the first year of the program was mixed. Tax collection was sluggish, and delays with structural reforms in the energy, water, and irrigation sectors led to the nonobservance of several quantitative performance criteria under the program.
The staff report for the First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility on the Republic of Armenia highlights economic developments and the macroeconomic framework. Armenia’s economy continues to perform strongly. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies, strong external inflows, and ongoing structural reforms have contributed to double-digit growth, low inflation, and declining poverty. Armenia’s economic outlook is favorable, although not without risks. The main policy challenge is how to deal with large remittance inflows when government deposits are large and social and infrastructure needs remain pressing.
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Armenia’s recent economic performance has remained strong, and the economy is poised for another year of double-digit growth. Rising inflation, a widening current account deficit, and rapid credit growth have raised concerns about overheating. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for the successful implementation of macroeconomic policies under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)-supported program that expired in May 2008. Directors have also welcomed the authorities’ intention to withdraw fiscal stimulus during 2008–09 to address current imbalances.
This paper assesses Armenia’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Under the previous PRGF-supported program, Armenia accomplished macroeconomic stability, rapid growth, and a significant reduction in poverty. To consolidate these gains, there is a need to address the remaining structural weaknesses and implementation gaps as identified in the ex post assessment of Armenia’s long-term IMF engagement. The 2005 reform agenda is ambitious and focuses on fiscal and financial sector reforms. Armenia’s economic outlook is favorable, although not without risks.
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Armenia. Fiscal policy has been prudent, but increasing expenditure pressures are creating medium-term fiscal risks. Tax collection still falls short of financing needs for infrastructure and poverty-reducing services, calling for further strengthening of tax administration. Monetary policy will need to be tightened in light of rising inflation risks. A firm commitment to a medium-term inflation target will be critical for anchoring price expectations and building credibility in the transition to full-fledged inflation targeting.
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Armenia. Armenia’s economy performs strongly. All end-December 2006 quantitative and all but one structural performance criteria were observed. The main policy challenges are to broaden economic growth, raise tax revenues, and manage large foreign exchange inflows. Fiscal policy remains appropriate. Meeting the ambitious 2007 revenue target will require broadening the tax base and strengthening administration. The stance of monetary policy is appropriate.
The staff report for the Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility focuses on the Republic of Armenia’s economic environment and policy discussion. Financial sector reforms will focus on improving corporate governance, strengthening regulation and supervision, and deepening financial intermediation. Price developments should be monitored closely and monetary policy tightened further should inflation pressures increase. The authorities’ plan to subsidize the local gas supplier to limit gas tariff increases for end-users is cause for concern.
Macroeconomic performance of Armenia in 2007 has been strong, with double-digit growth and single-digit inflation for the sixth consecutive year. Fiscal policy in 2007 remains prudent, with the central government deficit limited to the programmed level of 1.8 percent of GDP. Monetary growth has accelerated in 2007, fueled by unsterilized foreign exchange intervention, cash dedollarization, and a surge in private sector credit. External developments in 2007 have shaped by large-scale inflows, high food prices, and buoyant domestic demand, amid continued dram appreciation.