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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

J. Marcus Fleming

THE PRESENT PAPER constitutes the first part of a study designed to show the order of magnitude of the increases in domestic prices that will result, on specified assumptions regarding the relevant foreign trade elasticities and propensities, from exchange depreciation accompanied by appropriate financial policies. Exchange devaluation may be used to improve the balance of payments or to permit a relaxation of import restrictions. Only the former use is considered here, the latter being reserved for consideration in a later paper. It is assumed here that exchange depreciation is accompanied by a financial policy that leaves unchanged the level of aggregate employment. For the type of depreciation examined, such a policy is taken to be compatible with the maintenance of stability in the prices of home trade goods, although the prices of import and export goods will rise.

International Monetary Fund
Hong Kong has grown strongly as a result of its successful transformation from a manufacturing presence to a services hub over past decades. Executive Directors support the government’s commitment for the Linked Exchange Rate System. Hong Kong’s future as a financial center is linked to its expanding role in mainland intermediation. Although the current fiscal stance is appropriate, some fiscal reforms remain pending. The government is aware of the central importance of Hong Kong’s traditional strengths to its ongoing success.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted in The Valley, Anguilla, during March 27–31, 2017. This was the first mission to Anguilla carried out as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on external sector statistics (ESS) and in response to requests from the Anguilla Statistics Department (ASD) of Anguilla’s Ministry of Finance, Economic Development, Commerce, Tourism, Land & Physical Planning (MFED).1 The purpose of the mission was to assist the ASD in strengthening the compilation and dissemination of ESS. This is intended to facilitate a robust assessment of external sector developments and policy impact. Reliable ESS are essential for informed economic policy-making by the authorities.
International Monetary Fund
This report provides a summary of the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) measures in place in the United States on May 2006. The report describes and analyzes those measures and provides recommendations on how certain aspects of the system could be strengthened. The views expressed in this document are the views of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), but do not necessarily reflect the views of the Boards of the IMF or World Bank. The Bank Secrecy Act provides the basis for most of the preventive measures applied to the financial sector and other businesses.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) banks’ exposure to nonbanking businesses in Mainland China. Hong Kong SAR banks are generally less exposed to riskier Mainland businesses. Despite that, a sharp deterioration in the balance sheet of Mainland businesses, as well as a sharper-than-expected downturn in the Mainland economy could negatively affect Hong Kong SAR banks, raising debt at risk well above suggested estimates. As Hong Kong SAR banks generally have sizable buffers against downside risks, the best approach to such a scenario is vigilance, including maintaining high origination and underwriting standards.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

This paper examines credit conditions and recoveries from financial crises. The paper highlights that the prospects for recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis appear to be on the horizon. The paper discusses that the question—what determines the path of recovery from a recession associated with a financial crisis—is of utmost importance as policymakers debate how soon to withdraw the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus that were put in place soon after the onset of the crisis. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in emerging economies.

Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister, Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, and Theodore Pierre Bikoi
This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed.
Assaf Razin, Mr. Ashoka Mody, and Efraim Sadka
We develop a simple information-based model of FDI flows. On the one hand, the abundance of "intangible" capital in specialized industries in the source countries, which presumably generates expertise in screening investment projects in the host countries, enhances FDI flows. On the other hand, host-country corporate-transparency diminishes the value of this expertise, thereby reducing the flow of FDI. Empirical evidence (from a sample of 9 source countries and 13 host countries over the 1980s and 1990s), analyzed in a gravity-equation model, provides support for the theoretical hypotheses. The model also demonstrates that the gains for the host country from FDI (over foreign portfolio investment (FPI)) are reflected in a more efficient size of the stock of domestic capital and its allocation across firms. These gains are shown to depend crucially (and positively) on the degree of competition among FDI investors.
International Monetary Fund
This paper analyzes an economy in which there are no interest-bearing assets, only equity shares. Equilibrium conditions are derived for the case of a closed economy, an open economy with trade in goods only, and finally one with trade in both goods and equity shares. It is shown that the rate of return to capital equilibrates savings and investment, that the differential between the domestic and foreign rates of return to equity determines the direction of capital flows, and that under a fixed exchange rate system, adjustments induced by exchange rate changes are channeled through the asset accounts.