This paper examines the relationship between increases in the money supply and inflation in four developing countries. It is first shown that the growth in the money supply and inflation are linked in a two-way relationship in these countries, and then a dynamic model is designed that explicitly introduces the link in the form of reactions of the government fiscal deficit to inflation. The basic hypothesis is that an increase in the rate of inflation, whatever its cause, increases the real value of the fiscal deficit, because money expenditures keep pace with inflation while nominal revenues tend to lag. The model is estimated for the four countries, and the empirical results tend to validate the hypothesis. It is found that fiscal deficits play an important role in the inflation process, and that increases in these deficits are largely owing to the differences in the lags of government expenditures and revenues. Two basic policy conclusions emerge from this study: first, the tendency of government budgetary positions to be automatically destabilizing in developing economies underscores the need for an actively anti-inflation fiscal policy in these economies. Second, developing countries should attach priority to tax reforms designed to eliminate revenue lags.
This supplement provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, The Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Better Policies through Stronger Institutions. It is divided into nine notes or sections, each focused on a different topic covered in the main paper. Section A explores the importance of institutions for growth, and the role the Fund can play in building institutions. Section B presents stylized facts about how the landscape for CD has changed since the late 1990s. Section C discusses the difficulties of analyzing CD data because of measurement issues. Section D provides a longer-term perspective on how Fund CD has responded to member needs. Section E contains information on previous efforts to prioritize CD, assesses Regional Strategy Notes (RSNs) and country pages, and suggests ways to strengthen RSNs, including by using the Fund’s surveillance products. Section F compares the technical assistance (TA) funding model proposed in the 2011
This paper reviews the World Bank lending for structural adjustment. The World Bank has always stressed the need to use limited investable resources efficiently. It has attempted to identify investment priorities in recipient countries and lent for projects that promised a high rate of return. The Bank’s Operational Manual defines structural adjustment lending as nonproject lending to support programs of policy and institutional change necessary to modify the structure of an economy so that it can maintain both its growth rate and the viability of its balance of payments in the medium term.